Thursday, June 2, 2016

June 2, 2016: Dry tonight; Rain returns on Friday; Scattered rain this weekend; 70s possible in Duluth on Sunday

/Issued 5:11 PM CDT, Thursday, June 2, 2016/

Friday's severe weather outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

High temperature forecast for Friday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 2, 2016

Gray skies continued in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today but the clearing line has been making steady albeit slow eastward progress this afternoon -- At 3 PM mostly sunny skies were found over the Brainerd Lakes area east to Moose Lake and south to Hinckley and Pine City.  Temperatures today ranged from the mid to upper 50s in far northern Minnesota to the 60s elsewhere with near 70 degree temperatures at Aitkin, Hinckley and Pine River.  Winds were out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight:  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 40s to lower 50s with 30s possible in far northeast Minnesota.  An area of high pressure over Iowa late this afternoon will move toward the east during the night while low pressure moves into the northern Plains.  Winds will shift from a westerly direction to the south/east at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday:  An area of low pressure will move into Minnesota on Friday -- A warm front should be over southern Minnesota tomorrow morning with this boundary moving a little more to the north/east through Friday evening but I don't think it'll get much farther north than I-94 in central Minnesota.  A cold front will also push through the Northland Friday night.

Moisture will increase ahead of this system with dew points likely climbing into the mid 50s to low 60s in our area on Friday with PWATS rising to between 1.00-1.50".

Low level jet of 30 to around 45 knots is forecast to develop tomorrow with mid level winds generally around 30 knots (Stronger mid level winds to our south)  Upper level winds of around 80 knots will be located to our northeast and also out in west central Minnesota so there should be good divergence located over the Northland on Friday.

With the approaching low and frontal boundaries moving in tomorrow there's no doubt that will get some rain to fall over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Scattered thunderstorms should also occur tomorrow mainly in western-southern portions of the area.  Note:  There is still a risk for a few stronger thunderstorms especially from around Brainerd to the Hinckley, Pine City and Siren areas.  The limiting factor for severe weather on Friday will be the lingering cloud cover which leads to limited surface heating and minimal CAPE (Fuel for storms) At this time it looks like will only have around 500 j/kg of CAPE to work with so I don't think severe thunderstorms will occur this far north on Friday but a storm or two could approach severe levels in far southern parts of the Northland -- Keep in mind that if we happen to get more clearing than what is currently forecast for Friday afternoon, then a somewhat greater risk for strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible generally along and south of a Brainerd to Siren line.

Highs on Friday will be in the 60s with 70s possible in areas that have some sun.  It will be cooler near Lake Superior with highs in the 40s and 50s.  Lows Friday night will be in the 40s and 50s.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  High.

Low pressure at the surface and aloft will slowly pull off to the east but will continue to control our weather from Saturday through Monday.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the Northland this weekend and on Monday.  Daytime highs are expected to be in the 50s and 60s on Saturday with 60s and 70s for Sunday and Monday.  Low temperatures generally in the 40s and 50s for Saturday night and Sunday night.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  67
Low:  46

Sunrise Friday:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:57 PM CDT