Thursday, June 16, 2016

June 16, 2016: 70s to near 80 on Friday and a little more humid; Strong-severe thunderstorms possible this weekend, warm and muggy! First half of June climate stats in this post

/Issued 5:43 PM CDT, Thursday, June 16, 2016/

Excessive rainfall outlook valid 7 AM Saturday until 7 AM Sunday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

5-10% (Slight chance) for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance in northern Minnesota -- Green outlined area on map.

A wet and cool first half of June in the Twin Ports.  Rain has fallen on 11 of the first 15 days of this month with only 4 days without a drop of rain.

It's been a little stormy this month considering how cool it has been -- 5 thunderstorm days so far this month.

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

High temperature forecast for Friday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 16, 2016

Getting better! Low clouds, fog and drizzle earlier in the day gave way to clearing skies which moved east to west across the Northland -- This afternoon sky conditions were generally sunny or mostly sunny which is a big change from previous days.  With the sunshine came warmer temperatures with highs today in the 70s (60s closer to Lake Superior)  Winds were out of the east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 16, 2016

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  Clear to partly cloudy skies with patchy fog possible late.  High pressure will cover the Northland tonight.  Lows will mainly be in the 50s with 40s possible closer to Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast at around 10 mph.

Friday:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A little more humid compared to Thursday with dew points in the 50s and 60s.  Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with 60s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows will be in the 60s.  High pressure will move over the central/eastern Great Lakes while a frontal boundary over the northern Plains Friday morning moves south/east into western-northern Minnesota by late Friday night.  A few showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly over western parts of the Northland.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  Medium.

Warm, muggy and potentially stormy weather ahead for this weekend.

A major heat wave will setup across the central, southern Plains into the southwest U.S. with strong winds aloft found over the Upper Midwest or to the north of the intense heat -- A frontal boundary will remain over the northern Plains and near northern Minnesota on Saturday with a cold front moving through the area some time Sunday afternoon or Sunday night.  It should be very warm, muggy and unstable across the Northland so will have the fuel in place for thunderstorms, will also have a trigger in the form of one or more boundaries nearby.  A limiting factor for thunderstorm development could be the presence of warmer temperatures aloft (CAP) especially on Sunday.

Looking over severe weather parameters for this weekend, they look pretty good right now with most of them peaking on Sunday.

If thunderstorms do develop they certainly could turn severe both Saturday and Sunday with all modes of severe weather possible including damaging wind, hail and isolated tornadoes.

Heavy rainfall is also possible with the muggy airmass in place but storms should move quickly which may decrease the potential for flooding unless storms train over the same location.

As for temperatures; Highs Saturday and Sunday are expected to be in the 70s and 80s with 90s possible in southern areas on Sunday.  It will remain cooler mainly along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s.

Normal temperatures for June 17th at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  71
Low:  50

Sunrise Friday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   9:06 PM CDT