Wednesday, June 15, 2016

June 15, 2016: 8 preliminary tornado reports in southern Minnesota on Tuesday; More fog/drizzle near Lake Superior into Thursday morning; Warmer inland (Still chilly by the lake)

/Issued 5:56 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 15, 2016/

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

High temperature forecast for Thursday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Filtered storm reports map for June 14, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Wind reports (58 mph or stronger)
Green dots=Hail reports (1.00" diameter or larger)

24-hour rainfall map ending the morning of June 15, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

24-hour rainfall totals for June 14-15, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Note:  Rain totals listed ending at 3 PM today.

Duluth, MN (Airport)  1.25"
Saginaw, MN:  0.96"
Cloquet, MN:  0.85"
Moose Lake, MN:  0.76"
Hinckley, MN:  0.78"

Two Harbors, MN:  1.46"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.72"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.30"
Isabella, MN:  0.25"
Ely, MN:  0.37"

Skibo, MN:  1.25"
Eveleth-Virginia, MN:  0.83"
Hibbing, MN:  0.73"
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.94"
Hill City, MN:  1.28"

McGregor, MN:  0.81"
Aitkin, MN:  0.69"
Brainerd, MN:  0.98"
Pine River, MN:  1.32"
Walker, MN:  0.65"

Cass Lake, MN:  0.53"
Littlefork, MN:  0.72"
International Falls, MN:  0.94"
Superior, WI:  0.89"
Washburn, WI:  0.52"

Ashland, WI:  0.76"
Barnes, WI:  0.34"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.15"
Minong, WI:  0.18"
Siren, WI:  0.25"

Hayward, WI:  0.48"
Clam Lake, WI:  0.67"
Glidden, WI:  0.21"
Phillips, WI:  0.18"

*8 preliminary tornado reports in southern and far western Minnesota on June 14, 2016*

Source:  Storm Prediction Center

1:52 PM:  TORNADO.  1 NW of Pipestone, MN (Pipestone County)

1:59 PM:  TORNADO.  2 NE of Pipestone, MN (Pipestone County)

3:34 PM:  TORNADO.  2 SSW of Vernon Center, MN (Blue Earth County)

4:02 PM:  TORNADO.  1 S of Waterville, MN (Le Sueur County)

4:32 PM:  TORNADO.  2 ESE of Kilkenny, MN (Le Sueur County)

5:10 PM:  TORNADO.  5 SE of Beardsley, MN (Big Stone County)

5:26 PM:  TORNADO.  2 W of Barry, MN (Big Stone County)

5:50 PM:  TORNADO.  4 NNE of Barry, MN (Big Stone County)

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 15, 2016

At least it's not too hot outside (This is great weather for doing things outdoors)  Another day of fog, rain, east winds and cold temperatures near Lake Superior, highs in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  Inland locations had highs in the 60s with a few locations making it into the low 70s.  Low pressure of 1006mb has moved into western Wisconsin late this afternoon but bands of rain continued to affect most of northeast Minnesota into portions of northwest Wisconsin.  Enough instability built up this afternoon which helped to trigger scattered thunderstorms mainly from around the Hayward area east to Phillips and Park Falls north toward Hurley.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  Low pressure will move east out of western Wisconsin and into western lower Michigan by daybreak -- Mostly cloudy skies with lingering light rain this evening will give way to some partial clearing from west to east after Midnight.  Near Lake Superior expect drizzle and fog to persist most of the night although conditions could improve from time to time.  Lows in the 40s and 50s with north or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday:  Warmer for inland locations with highs in the 70s, maybe an 80 degree temperature in northern Minnesota.  Much cooler near Lake Superior with highs in the 50s.  Lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph around Lake Superior.  Expect partly cloudy skies on Thursday with fog and low clouds near Lake Superior gradually eroding by the afternoon.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  Medium.

Warmer and more humid with a risk for thunderstorm clusters.

A massive dome of very hot temperatures will cover the Plains and southwest U.S. late this week through next week -- The Northland will sit on the north edge of the core of the most intense heat, this combined with a cold front and some upper level disturbances rotating up and around the upper level ridge to our south will collide with what should be a warm, moist and unstable atmosphere...This setup should lead to a couple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms especially on Saturday and Sunday (June 18-19)  With stronger winds aloft developing over the weekend this could lead to a damaging wind potential if thunderstorms are able to form.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s Friday, Saturday and Sunday but highs could approach 90 degrees in parts of the Northland on Sunday as we could have some additional heating take place ahead of an eastward moving cold front.  Dew points are expected to be in the 60s this weekend so it will also feel a little on the muggy side.

Normal temperatures for June 16th at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  71
Low:  50

Sunrise on Thursday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset on Thursday:   9:05 PM CDT