Tuesday, June 14, 2016

June 14, 2016: Wet, cool, windy and foggy through Wednesday; 70s and 80s possible this weekend! Half dozen tornado reports so far today in southern Minnesota

/Issued 5:32 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 14, 2016/

Warnings map for today through 5 PM CDT.  Over 20 tornado warnings so far today in southern Minnesota, northeast South Dakota and extreme northwest Iowa.  Source, http://www.nws.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/today.html

Red polygons=Tornado warning
Blue polygons=Severe thunderstorm warning
Green polygons=Flash flood warning

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 5:25 PM CDT.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Tornado watch until 10 PM CDT tonight for the red shaded area on map.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Severe thunderstorm watch until 11 PM CDT tonight for the blue shaded area on map.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

A slight risk (5-10%) for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance tonight in all of northeast Minnesota and most of northwest Wisconsin (Green outlined area on map)  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

High temperature forecast for Wednesday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 14, 2016

A miserable day near Lake Superior, we've had quite a few of these since May.  Strong east winds at 15 to 30 mph combined with temperatures only in the mid 40s to low 50s in the middle of June, there's also been some fog and mist at times.  Inland locations have had mostly cloudy skies today with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.  Showers have been moving into western-southern areas this afternoon with severe thunderstorms affecting parts of southern Minnesota as low pressure of 1002mb moves into eastern South Dakota while a warm front was down along the Minnesota-Iowa state line at 3 PM today.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  Wet! Rain should increase in coverage through the night with the rain moving generally from south to north or from southwest to northeast.  Could be some heavier downpours at times thanks to a lot of juice in the air with PWATS climbing to 1.30-1.80".  A few embedded thunderstorms are possible as well as elevated CAPE slowly builds to a couple hundred j/kg.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the east, northeast or southeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts around Lake Superior.  Low pressure which was over eastern South Dakota this afternoon will move slowly east into western Minnesota during the night while a cold front heads east into the western half of Minnesota with the warm front over far southern Minnesota only making slow northward progress tonight.

Wednesday:  Low pressure will track east/southeast from western Minnesota to western lower Michigan while a warm front and cold front move out of the Northland by tomorrow night.  Expect more rain at times tomorrow with a chance for a few thunderstorms primarily over northwest Wisconsin.  Highs in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior and possible 70s in far southern areas.  Lows will be in the 50s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the east, north or west at 10 to 20 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Will dry out on Thursday with clearing skies slowly working east during the day, highs should be in the 70s with 50s and 60s near Lake Superior.

Mainly dry on Friday although there is a risk for a few showers and thunderstorms mainly in western portions of the area.  Highs are expected to be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.

Early look at the upcoming weekend -- Looks pretty warm and possibly a little on the humid side with highs both Saturday and Sunday in the 70s and 80s.  Might even get close to 90 degrees on Sunday in some parts of the area.  Wind direction will determine how warm it gets this weekend in the Twin Ports.  East wind (Cooler)  South or southwest wind (Very warm)

Normal temperatures for June 15th at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  71
Low:  49

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   9:05 PM CDT