Monday, June 13, 2016

June 13, 2016: Two-five inches of rain last night north of Duluth; More wet weather ahead including strong east winds, fog and drizzle near Gitche Gumee

/Issued 5:31 PM, Monday, June 13, 2016/

I know some of you prefer cold, rainy, foggy and windy weather this time of year so enjoy the next few days.

Tuesday, June 14, 2016 Severe Weather Outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

No risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow in northeast Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin.

A slight risk (2) for severe thunderstorms covers far southern Minnesota (Yellow shaded area on map)

A marginal risk (1) for severe thunderstorms in the lighter green shaded area on map.

Heavy rain totals last night north of Duluth.  Here's the radar estimated rainfall totals from June 12-13 ending the morning of June 13.

Significant river flooding is possible this week in portions of west central and southern Minnesota.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Warnings map for June 12, 2016.

Blue polygons=Severe thunderstorm warnings.  Pretty active on Sunday over west central Minnesota.

Sunday, June 12, 2016 damaging wind probability forecast (58 mph or stronger) and where high wind reports occurred represented by the blue dots on the map.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Sunday, June 12, 2016 large hail probability forecast (1.00" diameter or larger) and where large hail reports occurred yesterday represented by the green dots on the map.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

High temperature forecast for Tuesday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Tuesday morning and most of Tuesday afternoon should be dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin but rain chances will be on the increase from southwest-northeast Tuesday night.  Surface map forecast valid at 7 PM Tuesday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Occasional rain should continue on Wednesday.  Surface map forecast valid at 7 AM Wednesday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Rainfall reports for June 12-13, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

4 W of Togo, MN:  5.85"
5 NE of Snake Trail, MN:  4.62"
2 W of Leonidas, MN:  2.98"
2 E of Celina, MN:  2.66"
Grand Falls, MN:  2.49"
Makinen, MN:  2.22"
5 NW of Two Harbors, MN:  1.42"

Duluth, MN:  0.67"
International Falls, MN:  0.67"
Brainerd, MN:  0.23"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.64"
Hibbing, MN:  0.78"
Ashland, WI:  0.42"
Hayward, WI:  0.31"

12 N of Isle, MN:  0.38"
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN:  1.00"
Northome, MN:  0.88"
25 E of Ely, MN:  0.85"
Cook, MN:  0.71"
Duluth, MN (National Weather Service)  0.51"
Embarrass, MN:  1.96"

Floodwood, MN:  0.44"
10 W of Gunflint Lake, MN:  0.72"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.85"
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.75"
1 WSW of Saxon, WI:  0.73"
Hurley, WI:  0.39"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.38"

*Local Storm Reports for June 12-13, 2016*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*5:49 AM CDT 6/13:  FLOOD.  5 SSE of Celina, MN (St. Louis County)  Deputy reported a washout at Highway 5 and Leander Road.

*1:28 PM CDT 6/12:  0.25" diameter hail.  2 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)

*11:30 AM CDT 6/12:  0.25" diameter hail.  5 S of Calumet, MN (Itasca County)

*6:55 AM CDT 6/12:  0.50" diameter hail.  6 E of Woodrow, MN (Crow Wing County)

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

June 5-11, 2016

High temperatures:

6/5:  72 F/+4 degrees above normal
6/6:  66 F/-2 degrees below normal
6/7:  68 F/Normal
6/8:  69 F/Normal
6/9:  74 F/+5 degrees above normal
6/10:  83 F/+14 degrees above normal
6/11:  80 F/+10 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

6/5:  50 F/+4 degrees above normal
6/6:  51 F/+5 degrees above normal
6/7:  42 F/-5 degrees below normal
6/8:  37 F/-10 degrees below normal
6/9:  50 F/+3 degrees above normal
6/10:  46 F/-2 degrees below normal
6/11:  59 F/+11 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.44"
Normal:  0.92"
Departure:  -0.48" below normal

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 13, 2016

I was hoping we'd get some clearing in Duluth today but that just wasn't the case as low level moisture + a light onshore wind off Lake Superior kept low clouds and patchy fog going through the day, result from this was for temperatures to hold in the 50s while it was in the low to mid 70s from International Falls to Bigfork south to Brainerd as that corridor saw increasing amounts of sunshine by this afternoon.  Winds were light today out of the north or east.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog and drizzle mainly near Lake Superior.  Lows in the 40s and 50s with east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday:  Areas of fog and drizzle and windy around Lake Superior with temperatures in the 40s and 50s with east winds at 15 to 30 mph.  Inland locations will have highs in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 50s to lower 60s under partly sunny or mostly cloudy skies tomorrow and mostly cloudy skies tomorrow night.

Low pressure is forecast to reach the Nebraska-South Dakota state line tomorrow morning, this low will then slowly move toward the east/northeast and should be over south central Minnesota by daybreak on Wednesday.  Abundant moisture will once again lift north over a warm front which will be over southern Minnesota on Tuesday -- This setup should lead to a better chance for rain across the Northland especially by late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night.  A few thunderstorms are possible as well although the amount of elevated CAPE doesn't look to be as high as it was on Sunday so strong to severe thunderstorms look unlikely at this point.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  Medium.

Occasional rain will linger on Wednesday with some drizzle and fog near Lake Superior.  Low pressure will slowly lift northeast into Wisconsin on Wednesday and this system will finally exit far enough to the east by Thursday to bring mainly dry weather back to our area.

Cool temperatures continue for Wednesday with highs in the 50s and 60s and in the 40s closer to Lake Superior.  Some spots in northwest Wisconsin might climb into the 70s.  It does look a tad milder on Thursday with highs in the 60s and 70s but a pesky lake wind keeps it in the 50s near Lake Superior.

There is some hope for people who prefer milder temperatures.  This weekend could feature southerly winds and high temperatures into the 70s and 80s across the Northland and these milder temperatures may even be felt below the hill in Duluth and Superior if winds are more from the south-southwest versus the east, right now it looks like Sunday has a better chance for an offshore (Warmer wind direction) compared to Saturday but there's a chance for an offshore wind even on Saturday.

Normal temperatures for June 14th at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  70
Low:   49

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   9:05 PM CDT