Saturday, June 11, 2016

June 11, 2016: 50s and 60s in Duluth on Sunday with a gusty east wind; Slight shower chance Sunday morning; Better chance for rain late Sunday night

/Issued 9:31 PM CDT, Saturday, June 11, 2016/

Excessive rainfall outlook valid 7 AM Sunday through 7 AM Monday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Severe weather outlook for Sunday, June 12, 2016.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

Yellow=Slight risk for severe thunderstorms (2)
Light green=Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (1)

Future radar for late tonight and Sunday morning per 00z 4km NAM.  Source,

I think will remain dry in Duluth and Superior through Sunday morning although a brief shower cannot be completely ruled out prior to Noon Sunday.

Future radar for late Sunday afternoon and evening per 00z 4km NAM.  Source,

More showers and thunderstorms develop over western Minnesota -- This activity is forecast to move east and should reach Duluth and Superior most likely after 9-10 PM Sunday (Subject to change)

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

High temperature forecast for Sunday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Local Storm Reports for June 10, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*4:20 AM CDT:  0.88" diameter hail.  1 SSE of Elmer, MN (St. Louis County)  Penny and nickle size hail.

*4:25 AM CDT:  1.00" diameter hail.  2 NE of Meadowlands, MN (St. Louis County)  Mainly dime size hail with some quarter size hail.  Estimated 40 mph wind gusts.

*2:27 PM CDT:  MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  40 mph.  La Pointe, WI (Ashland County)

Rainfall report for June 10, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.14"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.10"
Ashland, WI:  0.81"
25 E of Ely, MN:  0.64"
Cook, MN:  0.53"
Duluth, MN (National Weather Service)  0.16"
Embarrass, MN:  0.67"
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.18"
1 WSW of Saxon, WI:  1.02"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.14"

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 11, 2016

A real nice day as high temperatures climbed into the 70s and 80s.  Dew points were mainly in the 40s and 50s today so not humid at all.  A nice breeze out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium.

Tonight:  High pressure builds into Ontario Province while low pressure heads east/northeast into the northern Plains, a warm front connected to this low will remain over southwest Minnesota.  A very moist and unstable airmass is in place near and south of that warm front this evening with dew points in the 60s to lower 70s with PWATS around 1.50".  Lots of instability too with CAPE of 2000-3000+ j/kg.  A much different story here in the Northland with stable and dry air in place with PWATS ranging from around 0.40" in the Arrowhead to 0.90" toward the Brainerd Lakes.  A few showers or thunderstorms are possible late tonight mainly over western-southern areas.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the east at 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday:  High pressure will center itself north/east of our area while low pressure tracks east out of the northern Plains -- A warm front will extend from western to southern Minnesota and this boundary shouldn't move much further to the north or east.  A cold front will track east and into the Northland Sunday night.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible tomorrow morning mainly in western-southern parts of the Nortland.  It should stay dry near Lake Superior and over the Arrowhead.

Moisture will be on the increase on Sunday with PWATS building to 1.00-1.50" during the day and to 1.50-2.00" Sunday night -- It will take longer for this deeper moisture to reach the Arrowhead and locations near Lake Superior but it should do so tomorrow night.

Looking at the instability:  Not much surface based CAPE here in the Northland but elevated CAPE will be increasing to over 1000 j/kg Sunday afternoon and night.

Additional showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to either develop over the Northland or move east out of western Minnesota Sunday night, locally heavy rainfall is possible with this activity.

Highs on Sunday will be in the 50s near Lake Superior to the 60s and 70s elsewhere.  Lows Sunday night will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 mph tomorrow with east, south or west winds Sunday night.

Normal temperatures for June 12th at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  70
Low:  48

Sunrise Sunday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   9:04 PM CDT