Wednesday, May 4, 2016

May 4, 2016 Weather Report - Mid summer like temperatures on the way for a few days; Scattered showers possible Thursday morning

/Issued 7:15 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 4, 2016/

Very warm temperatures on the way for Thursday and Friday with the warmest air expected on Friday.  Here's the 925mb temperature forecast valid for Friday afternoon per 18z NAM.  This map looks more like July or August than early May.  Should have no problem hitting the 80 degree mark with many locations in the Northland into the mid and possibly even upper 80s Friday afternoon.

Surface map valid for Friday morning.  A classic warm setup for Duluth with low pressure to our northwest and a cold front to our west which places us squarely in the warm sector with west or southwest winds.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Future radar valid for late Friday afternoon-early evening per 18z 4 km NAM.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 4, 2016

A pleasant spring day under sunny to partly cloudy skies.  Highs were in the 50s and 60s with 40s close to Lake Superior due to localized lake breezes which developed during the day.  High pressure stretched from South Dakota to Ontario Province today while low pressure drifts slowly south/east through Michigan.  Winds today were out of the north or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (May 4)

Clear to partly cloudy skies this evening will turn partly or mostly cloudy late -- A few showers are possible mainly after Midnight thanks to a warm advection pattern which moves in from the west/northwest.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s with winds turning to the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday night (May 5)

High pressure moves off to the south and east while a warm front pushes east through the Upper Midwest.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow and tomorrow night.  A few showers are possible in parts of the Northland tomorrow.  Warming up with highs ranging from the 60s and 70s in northwest Wisconsin to the 80s in northern Minnesota.  Lows Thursday night will be unseasonably mild in the 50s and 60s which is what the average HIGH temperature is at this time of year.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (May 6-8)

Everything appears to be on track for a hot Friday.  High temperatures are expected to be in the 80s with a 90 degree temperature possible in a few spots in north central or east central Minnesota.

A cold front will move southeast and through the Northland Friday afternoon/night -- The computer models continue to generate sufficient instability along and ahead of this front but moisture is lacking, but enough lift near this front should work in concert with the available instability to generate a few showers and thunderstorms in parts of the area from late Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

Dry weather returns this weekend along with cooler temperatures but really back to average or a little above average.

High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with cooler temperatures closer to Lake Superior.  Low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(May 9-14)

Could be some showers around the area between the 10th-13th.  Near normal temperatures for the most part through the long range the way it looks now.


.Tonight...  Clear this evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy late.  A few showers possible after 3 AM.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east around 10 mph becoming southwest toward daybreak.

.Thursday...  A few showers possible during the morning under mostly cloudy skies.  Becoming partly to mostly sunny during the afternoon.  High 73 to 78.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  Record high temperature expected.  High 82 to 87.  Record high is 82 degrees set in 2000.

.Friday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 60 to 65.

.Saturday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  59
Low:   38

Sunrise Thursday:  5:47 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:24 PM CDT