Tuesday, May 31, 2016

May 31, 2016: Long range outlook for June included in this post. Rainfall, peak wind gusts and local storm reports from today

/Issued 6:15 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 31, 2016/

Preliminary climate stats for May 2016 at Duluth, Minnesota.

12-hour enhanced satellite loop ending at 4:37 PM CDT May 31, 2016.  Source, Unisysweather.

The darker blue colors (colder cloud tops) in central Minnesota early this morning and in western, central and northern Wisconsin this afternoon are areas where heavier rainfall occurred.

Here's the June temperature forecast per CFSv2 model.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Note:  What we had in Duluth during the month of May should carry over into June -- Will probably have a couple days of well above normal temperatures (Similar to May) but also expect stretches of below to near average temperatures.

June precipitation forecast per CFSv2 model.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Above average precipitation is forecast in all of the Northland.

Flash flood potential this evening across portions of Wisconsin (Pink outlined area on map)  Source, Weather Prediction Center; More information at the link below.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0277&yr=2016

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

High temperature forecast for Wednesday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

June climate averages at Duluth, Minnesota

Temperature:  60.1 degrees
Precipitation:  4.23"

Normal high on the 1st:  67 F
Normal high on the 30th:  75 F

Normal low on the 1st:  45 F
Normal low on the 30th:  53 F

Warmest June on record:  65.5 degrees in 1910
Coldest June on record:  53.0 degrees in 1917

Wettest June on record:  10.89" in 1874
Driest June on record:  0.11" in 1910

Astronomical data for the month of June:

Sunrise on the 1st:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th:  5:18 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  8:56 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th:  9:06 PM CDT

*Local Storm reports for May 31, 2016*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*12:35 AM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25" diameter.  Fort Ripley, MN (Crow Wing County)

*1:19 AM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25" diameter.  Baxter, MN (Crow Wing County)

Peak wind gusts on May 31, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN (Airport)  45 mph
Sky Harbor, MN:  43 mph
1 N of Knife River, MN:  39 mph
French River, MN:  38 mph
3 WNW of Twig, MN:  37 mph
2 WSW of Lester Park, MN:  36 mph
International Falls, MN:  31 mph
Two Harbors, MN:  31 mph
The Bay of Grand Marais, MN:  31 mph
Cloquet, MN:  30 mph

Preliminary rainfall reports for May 31, 2016
Source:  MesoWest

International Falls, MN:  0.73"
Littlefork, MN:  0.89"
Bigfork, MN:  0.61"
Walker, MN:  0.58"
Longville, MN:  0.40"

Pine River, MN:  0.28"
Brainerd, MN:  1.38"
Aitkin, MN:  0.55"
Hill City, MN:  0.84"
McGregor, MN:  0.49"

Hinckley, MN:  0.15"
Moose Lake, MN:  0.29"
Cloquet, MN:  0.21"
Duluth, MN:  0.27"
Saginaw, MN:  0.22"

Two Harbors, MN:  0.19"
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.67"
Hibbing, MN:  0.38"
Skibo, MN:  0.17"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.15"

Orr, MN:  0.63"
Ely, MN:  0.13"
Isabella, MN:  0.08"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.12"
Superior, WI:  0.22"

Glidden, WI:  0.85"
Clam Lake, WI:  0.33"
Siren, WI:  0.07"
Minong, WI:  0.04"
Ashland, WI:  0.28"
Washburn, WI:  0.13"
Superior, WI:  0.22"

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 31, 2016

A miserable day near Lake Superior with strong east winds in the 15-30 mph range with gusts over 40 mph along with temperatures only in the 40s, but when combined with the strong winds the feels like temperatures were in the low to mid 30s on this final day of May!

An area of low pressure was over central North Dakota late this afternoon with a warm front from eastern Minnesota to central Wisconsin with a cold front running from northwest Minnesota to southeast Minnesota -- An area of heavier rain developed early this morning in parts of central into north central Minnesota with stronger thunderstorms as well in parts of east central Minnesota with one severe warned storm around the Brainerd area early this morning.

A new batch of heavy rain and thunderstorms have formed late this afternoon in eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin, generally along and east of a line from Shell Lake to Ashland with some of the heaviest rainfall rates occurring from Winter and Loretta northeast to Glidden per radar data.

Elsewhere there's also been some rain at times today although amounts have been quite a bit lighter compared to areas to the west and east.

High temperatures today away from Lake Superior were in the 50s in northern Minnesota with 70s in the Brainerd Lakes area as well as in southern parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Winds today were out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph with stronger winds near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  Heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of northwest Wisconsin this evening with flash flooding possible especially around the Hayward Lakes area.  Scattered showers are possible over the remainder of the Northland tonight but the greatest threat for excessive rains will be in southern/eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin.

An area of low pressure will move toward far northwest Minnesota by daybreak while a warm front and cold front lift north/east through the Northland.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s with 40s near Lake Superior where fog and drizzle will persist tonight.  Winds will be out of the east, south or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday:  Low pressure will move east through southern Ontario and to the north of Lake Superior.  Cold temperatures aloft, some warming near the surface combined with an upper low/trough moving overhead will lead to a scattered shower threat in most of the Northland on Wednesday with isolated thunderstorms also possible during the afternoon hours.  Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with near 70 degree temperatures possible in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds tomorrow will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Winds tomorrow night out of the west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Thursday looks dry with highs in the 60s, maybe a 70 degree temperature in southern parts of the Northland.  Rain chances return on Friday and will continue through the upcoming weekend as low pressure drops southeast into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region.

Normal temperatures for June 1st at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  67 degrees
Low:  45 degrees

Sunrise on Wednesday:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset on Wednesday:   8:56 PM CDT