Tuesday, May 3, 2016

May 3, 2016 Weather Report - Small hail reported at Grand Marais, MN early this afternoon; Seasonable temps on Wednesday; Heating up (Record warmth) possible late this week

/Issued 6:14 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 3, 2016/

*Local Storm Report for Tuesday, May 3, 2016*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

1:20 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25" diameter.  Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)  Hail fell for around 5 minutes and was smaller than peas.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Red Flag Warning continues until 8 PM CDT this evening (Pink shaded area on map)  More information at the link below.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Red Flag Warning -- http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=red%20flag%20warning

...Record warmth is possible late this week...

Record high temperatures at the Duluth Airport:

May 5th:  87 degrees set in 1918.
May 6th:  82 degrees set in 2000.

Note:  The record high for May 5th should be safe, but a new record is possible on May 6th.

Record high temperatures at International Falls:

May 5th:  86 degrees set in 1918.
May 6th:  86 degrees set in 1918.

Note:  Both of these records could be tied or broken based on the latest projections.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 3, 2016

There's been a few showers today in far northeast Minnesota while northwest Wisconsin has had a little better coverage of scattered showers along with a few afternoon thunderstorms especially around the Hayward Lakes area.  Otherwise it was a mild and breezy early May day under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Highs were in the 60s to around 70 degrees with west, southwest or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up at around 30 mph.  Surface map late this afternoon had a cold front extending from eastern Lake Superior to central Wisconsin to southern Minnesota with low pressure of 1002mb over northeast Ontario Province.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (May 3)

An area of high pressure will build south into the Upper Midwest tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with spotty showers ending before 10 PM.  Low temperatures will mainly be in the 30s with gusty north or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph especially this evening.

Wednesday and Wednesday night (May 4)

Dry tomorrow under sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the 50s and 60s, winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow night with a chance for a few showers in parts of the area as a warm advection pattern develops.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees with winds turning to the south or southwest during the night.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Thursday through Saturday (May 5-7)

Unseasonably warm airmass moves over the Northland Thursday and Friday (Peaking on Friday) 850mb temperatures of +15 to +20 degrees C with 925mb temperatures of around +25C are forecast to push east into the area late this week -- Should see daytime highs in the 70s and 80s in our area on Thursday and Friday with even a slight chance for a 90 degree high temperature Friday afternoon.  Note:  The normal high temperature in early May is right around 60 degrees.

Temperature forecast for locations below the hill in Duluth is tricky especially on Friday.  If the southwest wind isn't strong enough, then that could allow a lake breeze (east wind) to develop and push inland which would result in much cooler temperatures (50s) in the Twin Ports, but the computer models have been consistent in showing no hint of a lake breeze in Duluth on Friday with west or southwest winds in place, the only cooling would occur along the North Shore of Lake Superior probably from about Two Harbors up along the North Shore thanks to a more southerly wind direction.

A cold front is expected to pass through the Northland late Friday afternoon through Friday night -- The airmass along and ahead of this front could become quite unstable with CAPE possibly exceeding 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -2 to -5C with Mid level lapse rates at around 6.0-7.0 c/km.  Mid level winds at around 30-35 knots are forecast to spread into the Northland on Friday with stronger winds aloft to our north.  Moisture looks pretty marginal though with dew points in the 40s, maybe pooling into the 50s near the boundary.

Certainly can't rule out the development of a few showers or thunderstorms in parts of the Northland Friday afternoon or Friday night but widespread activity and severe weather isn't expected the way it looks now.

Backing up to Thursday for a minute...There could be a few showers at times in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as warm air floods into the region.

Saturday looks mostly dry at this time.

Low temperatures Thursday night will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with lows Friday night in the 40s and 50s.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s, so yes a lot cooler compared to Thursday and Friday, but the forecasted temperatures on Saturday are close to average for this time of year.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(May 8-13)

Sunday (8th) looks dry.  Showers are possible at times from the 9th-11th.  Temperatures should be fairly close to average through the long range.


.Tonight...  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph mainly this evening.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 57 to 62.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind becoming south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

.Thursday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 82 to 87 but it could be cooler closer to Lake Superior.

.Friday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  58
Low:   37

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:48 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:23 PM CDT