Thursday, May 26, 2016

May 26, 2016: Fog, drizzle with more rain moving in on Friday (Future radar in this post)

/Issued 5:06 PM CDT, Thursday, May 26, 2016/

24-hour rainfall total map ending the morning of May 26, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center; National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota; MesoWest

Text reports below

Sarona, WI:  1.49"
7 WNW of Minong, WI:  0.86"
Hayward, WI:  1.47"
5 WSW of Spirit, WI:  1.13"
1 N of Park Falls, WI:  1.01"

1 WSW of Saxon, WI:  1.75"
1 S of Hawthorne, WI:  0.76"
3 ENE of South Range, WI:  0.56"
6 NE of Hertel, WI:  1.68"
Danbury, WI:  1.22"

3 W of Clam Lake, WI:  2.00"
3 E of Namekagon, WI:  1.95"
11 SSE of Brule, WI:  1.39"
Washburn, WI:  0.69"
Glidden, WI:  1.33"

Ashland, WI:  1.12"
6 ESE of Cloverdale, MN:  0.80"
Duluth, MN:  0.17"
International Falls, MN:  0.17"
Brainerd, MN:  0.18"

Hurley, WI:  1.33"
Park Falls, WI:  1.13"
Superior, WI:  0.30"
Two Harbors, MN:  0.30"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.22"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.05"

Note:  Lots of ups and downs in the temperature department this month - In the end May 2016 will finish above average for number of 80 and 90 degree days, and should finish slightly above average in the number of 70 degree days.

Pattern change still looks likely by the end of next week as the current southwest flow aloft switches to northwest flow aloft after June 1st.  Source, Weather Prediction Center; 500mb forecast valid for Thursday, June 2, 2016.

A scattered frost threat is possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin sometime between June 3rd-5th.

Filtered storm reports map for May 25, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or stronger)
Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00 inch or greater in diameter)

**3:10 PM CDT, 5/25/16:  TORNADO.  1 SSW of Villard, MN (Pope County)  Boats flipped, shed damaged and shingles off roofs near Amelia Lake.

Future radar for Friday from the 18z 4km NAM; Source,

Note:  By far not a slam dunk forecast for the timing of Friday's rain and where the rain falls but here's one models take on how things could play out for Friday.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 26, 2016

An area of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall moved northeast through parts of northwest Wisconsin this morning while fog, low clouds and drizzle lingered around Lake Superior.  Changes took place in most of the Northland this afternoon as skies cleared out a bit allowing temperatures to warm into the 70s with a few locations making it to around 80.  Much cooler temperatures in the 50s prevailed though near Lake Superior where areas of low clouds and fog continued as of late this afternoon.  Surface map at 3 PM had low pressure over southern Manitoba Province with a cold front heading east out of central and eastern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight:  Low pressure remains to our north while the cold front over the Northland late this afternoon washes out during the night.  A few showers or thunderstorms are possible this evening away from Lake Superior with more showers possibly moving into southern sections of the Northland after Midnight.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s with 40s near Lake Superior where areas of dense fog and drizzle will persist tonight.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday:  Low pressure along with a warm front moves north/northeast out of the central Plains and into the Upper Midwest -- The warm front is forecast to extend from south central Minnesota to north central Wisconsin.  Rain and a few thunderstorms will be common tomorrow across most of the Northland with some heavier rainfall possible at times mainly in eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with 40s and 50s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south, east or north at 10 to 15 mph.

...Looking ahead...

Confidence:  Low to Medium.

Occasional showers are possible on Saturday as an area of low pressure remains over the Upper Midwest.

Model differences are large for Sunday with the NAM keeping rain over the Northland along with cool temperatures while the GFS and EUROPEAN models are quite a bit drier and also a lot warmer!  For now just have to watch the model trends, just not real sure yet which solution is correct.

Memorial Day might end up dry with temperatures in the 70s in most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Rain chances increase for Tuesday-Wednesday, May 31-June 1.

Normal temperatures for May 27th at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  65
Low:  44

Sunrise Friday:  5:21 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:51 PM CDT