Monday, May 2, 2016

May 2, 2016 Weather Report - Gusty west winds and mild on Tuesday with a few showers/t-storms; Around 80 in Duluth on Friday. Future radar for Tuesday included in this post

/Issued 4:41 PM CDT, Monday, May 2, 2016/

An interesting visible satellite image from this afternoon.  Light east wind and stable air keeping skies mainly sunny close to Lake Superior today while puffy cumulus clouds form over inland locations across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Future radar for Tuesday.  Source, 12z WRF-NMM;

Tuesday's severe weather outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

No severe weather in our area tomorrow but a few spotty thunderstorms are possible in far eastern Minnesota through all of Wisconsin (Dark green shaded area on map)

Note:  Occasional lightning, brief gusty winds, brief heavy downpours and possibly some small hail will be the main threats if thunderstorms develop on Tuesday.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 2, 2016

A beautiful spring day under partly to mostly sunny skies with more sun the closer you were to Lake Superior.  Highs today were in the 60s to around 70 degrees with 40s and 50s near the immediate Lake Superior shoreline due to a light onshore wind.  Winds elsewhere were mainly light and variable in direction at around 10 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (May 2)

A quiet weather night under clear to partly cloudy skies.  A cold front will approach the Borderland area toward daybreak but no rain is expected tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s to lower 50s with winds becoming southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday night (May 3)

Breezy! A cold front will move south/east across the Northland on Tuesday.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon across northwest Wisconsin with a few showers or isolated thunderstorms also possible tomorrow in eastern and northeast Minnesota.  The greatest amount of instability is forecast to setup over northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday with CAPE of around 200-500 j/kg along with steepening lapse rates of around 7.0 c/km...This combined with colder temperatures aloft with 500mb temperatures of around -22C should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development with small hail possible as well.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with west, southwest or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for Tuesday night with any lingering showers in northwest Wisconsin ending early in the evening.  Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with north or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Wednesday through Friday (May 4-6)

Dry on Wednesday with highs in the 50s with 60s in western areas.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Could be a few showers on Thursday in parts of the Northland thanks to a warm advection pattern with building warmth over the northern Plains spreading east later this week.  Highs on Thursday will range from the 60s and 70s in northern Minnesota with 50s and 60s in northwest Wisconsin with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Friday is shaping up to be a warm summer-like day with southwesterly winds in place out ahead of a cold front which is forecast to be centered to our west/north.  High temperatures on Friday are expected to be in the 70s with an 80 degree high temperature certainly possible.  It could be cooler though mainly along the North Shore of Lake Superior due to the southwest wind.  Note:  At this time it does appear that Downtown Duluth will also be quite warm on Friday with a southwest wind, but if winds shift to the east then it would turn much cooler.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(May 7-12)

Near to above average temperatures on the 7th-8th followed by near to below average temperatures from the 9th-12th.  A few showers are possible Friday night-Saturday morning as a cold front moves through the area.  Could be dealing with some more showers at times from the 9th-11th.


.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 42 to 47.  Light and variable wind around 10 mph this evening shifting to the southwest at 10 to 15 mph late.

.Tuesday...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly sunny.  Isolated showers possible during the afternoon.  High 63 to 68.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday night...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Wednesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

.Thursday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  58
Low:   37

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:50 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:22 PM CDT