Wednesday, May 11, 2016

May 11, 2016 Weather Report: Warming up to around 60 in Duluth on Thursday thanks to a SW wind; 90s last Friday to snow flurries this Friday in parts of the Northland (Amazing!)

Issued 4:30 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 11, 2016/

12z WRF-NMM precipitation type forecast valid at 7 AM CDT Friday, May 13, 2016.  Blue colors represent where snow flurries could be falling Friday morning, remember last Friday temperatures were in the 90s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin!  Source,

Duluth Doppler radar image from 4:30 PM CDT today.

Projected rainfall totals for tonight.  Source, 20z HRRR model.

500mb forecast for Saturday, May 14, 2016.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

500mb forecast for Wednesday, May 18, 2016.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Filtered storm reports map for May 10, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Another active day of severe weather on Tuesday with 16 preliminary tornado reports with most of them in far western Kentucky.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or stronger)
Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00" or greater in diameter)

Weather Tidbits:
Source, Twitter

*@NWSNorman has upgraded the Katie, Oklahoma tornado of May 9 to EF4.  The first violent tornado of 2016.  Annual average is about 7 EF4+.  Source, @USTornadoes

*1 EF4 and 3 EF3 tornadoes in Oklahoma on May 9th is the most EF3+ tornadoes in one outbreak in Oklahoma since May 24, 2011 (5:  1 EF5; 2 EF4; 2 EF3)  Source, @tlyzawx

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 11, 2016

What happened to spring? A gloomy day under a thick overcast but a brief patch of partially sunny skies did develop mid to late morning in a small part of eastern Minnesota but this didn't last long.  The cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity today is good news in that it keeps the fire danger lower compared to how it has been in previous days, there's also been some more drizzle and light rain in parts of the Northland today which also helps in terms of fire danger.  Highs today were in the 50s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the southeast or east at 10 to 20 mph with winds not quite as strong as they have been in recent days closer to Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Low pressure over southwest Manitoba Province late this afternoon will move east/northeast passing north of Minnesota through Friday morning -- An occluded front attached to this low will lift northeast through the Northland tonight.  Moisture has increased in our area with PWATS nearing 1.00" late this afternoon out ahead of this frontal boundary.  Light rain and drizzle will occur in our area tonight with the added lift in place as the occluded front moves through.  

A separate area of low pressure over northern Missouri late this afternoon will track northeast into southern Wisconsin by Thursday morning -- Rain associated with that low could affect parts of northwest Wisconsin late tonight into Thursday morning with heavier downpours possible.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s and 50s as winds remain out of the southeast or shift to the southwest in some areas later in the night.

A few spotty showers could develop Thursday afternoon in northern Minnesota but it looks dry elsewhere with highs in the 50s and 60s with a west or southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

Colder air begins to pour into the Northland Thursday night and Friday with chances for drizzle and spotty rain showers.  Temperatures aloft down to the surface are expected to cool enough to allow for some snow flurries early Friday morning in northern Minnesota (North of Duluth)

...Looking ahead...

Confidence:  Medium to High.

High pressure to our west with an upper low to our north/northeast is a good setup for chilly spring temperatures around here.  850mb temperatures are expected to bottom out at around -16C over Ontario Province to -5 to -10C in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin (Impressive for mid May)  500mb temperatures equally as impressive falling to -25 to -35C this weekend.

Spotty rain showers should continue over the weekend with snow flurries and ice pellets mixing in especially in the heavier showers and also during the nighttime/morning hours.  Note:  Right now it looks like Saturday holds the better chance for these spotty showers.

Expect daytime highs to be in the 40s to around 50 degrees in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Friday with 30s and 40s over northern Minnesota.  Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 40s with 30s possible in northern Minnesota especially on Saturday.  Low temperatures are expected to be in the 20s and 30s Friday night, Saturday night and Sunday night with patchy frost possible on all three of those nights.

Normal temperatures at Duluth for May 12th

High:  61
Low:  40

Sunrise Thursday:  5:37 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:33 PM CDT