Tuesday, May 10, 2016

May 10, 2016 Weather Report: A little more rain at times through Wednesday night; 60s Thursday; Colder by Friday, rain/snow showers this weekend. Future radar for Wednesday included in this post

/Issued 4:52 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 10, 2016/

Hot late last week, cold late this week...Blue colors on the map below is not what you want to see if you prefer warm temperatures.  This is the 850mb temperature anomaly forecast centered on Sunday morning, May 15, 2016.  Well below average temperatures heading this way starting on Friday and lasting at least through Sunday.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com; 12z EUROPEAN model.

HRRR model precipitation type forecast for this evening.  Blue is snow.

A couple areas of low pressure will keep the weather a little unsettled in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Wednesday night.

Doppler radar rainfall estimates per GR3 radar out of Duluth, Minnesota.

Rainfall totals through 3:30 PM CDT today, May 10, 2016.  Source, MesoWest.com

Future radar for Wednesday per 18z 4km NAM.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Right now it looks like Wednesday morning and early afternoon will be dry in Duluth and Superior with chances for rain increasing most likely after 2-3 PM the way it looks now.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Information on the tornado outbreak from May 9, 2016 -- Source, ustornadoes.com  http://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/02/29/the-largest-tornado-outbreaks-of-2016/

Fort McMurray fire update -- http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/05/09/fort-mcmurray-fire-video-stone-creek_n_9873616.html?ncid=tweetlnkcahpmg00000002

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

A gray and damp day in most of the Northland although far northern Minnesota did have some sun especially before Noon today.  There's been some rain today in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with rain totals on the light side generally less than a quarter inch.  Highs today were in the 40s and 50s with 60s in far northern Minnesota.  Winds today were out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts continuing near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Low pressure which was over eastern Montana late this afternoon will track northeast into Ontario Province by Thursday morning while another area of low pressure currently over the southern Plains tracks northeast into southern Wisconsin by Thursday morning -- Patchy drizzle and light rain will continue in parts of the Northland tonight (Rainfall totals remain on the light side)

Another round of rain is forecast to spread east/northeast into the area Wednesday afternoon, exiting to the northeast by late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Generally overcast skies tonight with more of the same for Wednesday although some peeks of sun can't be ruled out.

Low temperatures tonight will mainly be in the 40s to around 50 degrees with upper 30s closer to Lake Superior.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.

Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the 40s and 50s with highs on Thursday in the 50s and 60s.  Note:  Warmer temperatures will occur in the Twin Ports on Thursday as winds shift to the southwest, high temps should climb into the lower 60s in Duluth and Superior on Thursday.

...Looking ahead...

Confidence:  High.

A colder pattern for May 13th-15th.  An upper level area of low pressure sets up to our north with a few disturbances rotating southeast into the Upper Midwest.  Cold temperatures aloft will settle over the Northland along with lowering thickness values.  The pattern appears to be conducive for the development of spotty rain showers from Friday through Sunday.  Enough cold air in place could result in some snow showers as well with the better chances for frozen precipitation possibly occurring Saturday night-early Sunday morning.

High temperatures will likely hold in the 40s on Friday, Saturday and Sunday with a gusty northwest wind thrown in as well.  Some locations in northern Minnesota might not make it out of the 30s for daytime highs -- Well below average for mid May.  Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s and 30s this weekend so there will be a chance for frost.

Normal temperatures for May 11 at Duluth.

High:  61
Low:  39

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:38 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:33 PM CDT