Tuesday, April 5, 2016

April 5, 2016 Weather Report - Periods of wet snow along with some rain, sleet and fog thru Wednesday AM; Winter Weather Advisory in effect; More snow and rain Thursday; Snow Friday

/Issued 5:05 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 5, 2016/

Late afternoon water vapor satellite imagery and surface data -- Projected storm tracks through Wednesday (Black lines on map)  Expect additional snow and mixed precipitation in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Wednesday morning.

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 4:45 PM CDT today.  Source, WSI.

Pink=Mixed precipitation

Note:  More precipitation should gradually develop this evening in western and central Minnesota and that precipitation should move into Duluth later this evening and during the overnight hours.

Winter Weather Advisory tonight and Wednesday morning in northeast Minnesota (Purple shaded area on map)  More information at the link below.  Source, Aerisweather.com; National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Winter Weather Advisory -- http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Snowfall accumulation map through Wednesday per 19z RAP model.  This model run does show pockets of 6-8" of snow by tomorrow north of Duluth, that might be a little on the high side but certainly can't rule it out at this point.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  April 5, 2016

Spring and winter on the same day.  Not too bad this morning with a mix of sun and clouds as temperatures climbed into the 30s and lower 40s but weather conditions went downhill during the afternoon as low pressure moved into the northern Plains.  A band of precipitation blossomed this afternoon across central Minnesota with movement of this band of precip toward the east and northeast -- A lot of dry air preceded this precipitation which led to a decent amount of evaporative cooling so the main precipitation type this afternoon has been in the form of wet snow although brief periods of rain or sleet have also been observed in some locations.  Winds today were out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight (April 5)

Low pressure will move into western North Dakota early this evening and should move into southern Minnesota by dawn.  Periods of wet snow, rain and sleet will be found across the Northland tonight with the heaviest precipitation mainly before Midnight.  Patchy fog could also develop during the night.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s with 20s in far northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the east or northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday night (April 6)

One low exits to the southeast while another one approaches from the northwest by Wednesday night, a cold front will also push south into northern Minnesota.  A little unsettled tomorrow with areas of wet snow or rain although precipitation that does fall should be rather light.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Wednesday night in the 20s and 30s.  Winds out of the north or east tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph and out of the south or east tomorrow night at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Low to Medium.

Thursday through Saturday (April 7-9)

More wet snow and rain is possible on Thursday as low pressure moves through the Upper Midwest.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Thursday night in the 20s to lower 30s.

An interesting setup on Friday as northwest winds collide with an easterly flow near Lake Superior -- This may help to generate a band of snow which could accumulate a couple of inches along the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior on Friday.  Highs will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Friday night in the single digits below to teens above zero.

Mainly dry on Saturday with highs in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(April 10-15)

Below average temperatures through the long range although I'm finally seeing signs of a possible pattern flip on the computer models toward mid month but at least through the 15th expect below average temperatures.  Another shot of rain or wet snow on Sunday-Monday (10th-11th)


Timing:  Until 10 AM CDT Wednesday.

.Tonight...  Periods of wet snow.  Rain and sleet also possible along with areas of fog.  Slushy snowfall accumulations of 1-3" possible by dawn.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Occasional light snow.  Rain and drizzle also possible.  High 33 to 36.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday night...  Snow showers possible.  Low 30 to 32.  Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Snow or rain showers possible.  High 32 to 36.

.Thursday night...  Snow showers possible.  Low 25 to 30.

.Friday...  Snow showers possible.  High 30 to 35.

.Friday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  44
Low:  26

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:37 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:45 PM CDT