Monday, March 7, 2016

March 7, 2016 Weather Report - Risk for showers/isolated t-storms through Tuesday; Dense fog, drizzle and gusty east winds near Lake Superior

/Issued 4:26 PM CST, Monday, March 7, 2016/

Warm front pushes slowly north out of Southern Minnesota tonight - Warm, moist and unstable air will push north through the night -- Elevated thunderstorms are possible later in the night in parts of the Northland with lightning and brief downpours being the main hazards with small hail also possible in the strongest storms that may develop.  Source, HRRR model (21z run) valid for late tonight.

Surface map forecast for late tonight.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.


Tonight's thunderstorm outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

Dark green=Risk for non-severe thunderstorms.

Tuesday's thunderstorm outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

Dark green=Risk for non-severe thunderstorms.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Last week's temperature departure map.  Below average temps last week in far Northern Minnesota with near average temperatures in the remainder of the Northland.  Warmer than average last week in much of Western, Central and Eastern Minnesota.

Last week's precipitation departure map.  Pockets of above average precipitation in parts of Northern Minnesota but most of the Northland had near to below average precip totals last week.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

High temperatures:

2/28:  29 F/+1 degree above normal
2/29:  28 F/-1 degree below normal
3/1:  20 F/-9 degrees below normal
3/2:  24 F/-5 degrees below normal
3/3:  29 F/Normal
3/4:  28 F/-2 degrees below normal
3/5:  30 F/Normal

Low temperatures:

2/28:  21 F/+10 degrees above normal
2/29:  4 F/-7 degrees below normal
3/1:  -2 F/-13 degrees below normal
3/2:  8 F/-4 degrees below normal
3/3:  14 F/+2 degrees above normal
3/4:  5 F/-8 degrees below normal
3/5:  24 F/+11 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.23"
Normal:  0.30"
Departure:  -0.07" below normal

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  March 7, 2016

Certainly a spring like weather pattern today with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior while very mild temperatures continue away from the lake.  Surface map late this afternoon had low pressure of 992mb over extreme Northeast Colorado with another low of 996mb over Central South Dakota -- A warm front was over the Southern half of Minnesota with another frontal boundary draped from Central North Dakota to North Central Minnesota to far Northern Wisconsin.  The pressure gradient has tightened up today between high pressure near Hudson Bay Canada and low pressure to our southwest, this has resulted in a strong northeast wind near Lake Superior today with wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph, high temperatures near Lake Superior were in the 30s today which is near to slightly above average for early March.

Elsewhere across the Northland temperatures were in the upper 40s and 50s with a few spots in Northwest Wisconsin around 60 degrees as of 3 PM, these temperatures are a good 10-20 degrees warmer than average for this time of year.  Dew points are on the rise as well today with afternoon dew points ranging from the 50s over the Southwest half of Minnesota with near 40 degree dew points reaching into far Southern portions of the Northland.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 7)

The warm front over Southern Minnesota this afternoon will lift slowly north during the night and will more or less merge with the frontal boundary that is currently over the North Central part of Minnesota and far Northern Wisconsin -- Low pressure will remain off to our southwest.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight with areas of fog and drizzle, some of the fog could be locally dense especially near Lake Superior.  Scattered showers are also forecast to develop tonight as the warm front approaches from the south.  Isolated thunderstorms are also possible as elevated instability continues to build through the night with CAPE ranging from 200-700 j/kg while mid level lapse rates remain very steep at around 8.0 c/km.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s with east winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph continuing near Lake Superior.

Tuesday and Tuesday night (March 8)

An area of low pressure is forecast to be over Eastern South Dakota tomorrow morning, this low will then lift northeast into Northern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon before moving into Eastern Ontario Province after Midnight tomorrow night.  Attached to this low will be a warm front and cold front with both of those boundaries passing through the Northland on Tuesday.

Away from Lake Superior expect dew points of 40 to around 50 degrees on Tuesday with highs in the 40s, 50s and possibly even in the 60s.  Near Lake Superior highs will likely remain in the 30s along with areas of drizzle and dense fog.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible throughout the Northland tomorrow into early tomorrow evening with dry weather by late tomorrow night.  Lows Tuesday night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Winds on Tuesday will be out of the south, east or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds Tuesday night will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (March 9-11)

Mainly dry weather is expected in our area from mid to late week.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 30s and 40s.  Highs for Thursday and Friday will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s in far Northern Minnesota.  Low temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday night will be in the 20s and 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(March 12-17)

Above average temperatures look to continue through the long range -- There is a chance for some rain sometime around the 15th-17th time frame.


.Tonight...  Breezy.  Fog and drizzle, locally dense fog possible.  Scattered showers developing during the night.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Low 33 to 36.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

.Tuesday...  Fog and drizzle, locally dense fog possible.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible.  High 45 to 50 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest late in the day.

.Tuesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Thursday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  31
Low:  14

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:34 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   6:05 PM CST