Saturday, March 5, 2016

March 5, 2016 Weather Report: 40s and 50s on the way for Sunday; Showers/isolated t-storms Monday and Tuesday

/Issued 6:03 PM CST, Saturday, March 5, 2016/

Monday's thunderstorm outlook.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Yellow=Slight risk for severe thunderstorms (2)
Dark green=Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (1)
Light green=Risk for non-severe thunderstorms

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  March 5, 2016

Clouds were slow to erode today and as of early evening it was still mostly cloudy in most of Northwest Wisconsin while clearing has occurred slowly from west-east across Northeast Minnesota.  Due to the clouds sticking around longer than expected highs today ended up being a few degrees cooler than what was in the forecast with highs today in the upper 20s to mid 30s which still isn't too bad for early March.  Winds today shifted from the north or northwest early in the day to the south or southwest during the afternoon as high pressure pushes off to the southeast.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 5)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the teens and 20s.  A low level jet will be on the increase during the night with S-SW winds increasing to 40-50+ knots -- Strong warm air advection will be the net result as 850mb temperatures rise from around -8C this evening to around +6C by daybreak.  Winds tonight will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday night (March 6)

A cold front will move southeast toward Northern Minnesota while a warm front moves east out of the Northern Plains -- Several areas of low pressure will be over the Rockies tomorrow with southerly winds occurring out ahead of these lows.  Temperatures will be warming up on Sunday with highs in the 40s and 50s with lows Sunday night in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Winds will be out of the south or southwest tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph with winds becoming east Sunday night at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Monday through Wednesday (March 7-9)

Occasional showers along with a chance for drizzle and fog for Monday and Tuesday as low pressure along with an upper level trough, a warm front and cold front pass through the Upper Midwest -- A moist and mild airmass will be in place out ahead of this system early in the week with dew points climbing into the 40s while PWATS increase to over 1/2".  There continues to be a chance for a few thunderstorms as well on Monday and Tuesday as a couple different waves of elevated instability push N/NE through parts of the Northland.

Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with 60s possible over Southern parts of the Northland, it will be cooler though near Lake Superior.  Lows Monday night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Lows Tuesday night will be in the 20s and 30s.

Wednesday looks dry at the moment with highs in the 30s and 40s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(March 10-15)

Doesn't look like will be getting hit by any major storms during the long range, in fact as the weather pattern becomes more amplified and blocked up, it's certainly possible that the Northland remains generally dry from the 10th-15th.  Expecting above average temperatures through the long range.


.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 21 to 26.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Milder.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 47 to 52.  Wind southwest at 15 to 20 mph.

.Sunday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 37.  Wind becoming east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 37 to 42.

.Monday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers possible.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  Low 34 to 37.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers possible.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  High 45 to 50 but cooler near Lake Superior especially before Noon.

.Tuesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  30
Low:  14

Sunrise Sunday:  6:38 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   6:02 PM CST