Thursday, March 3, 2016

March 3, 2016 Weather Report - Snow, heavy at times on Friday; Near 50 by Sunday; T-storms possible early next week; Snowfall accumulation map for Friday included in this post

/Issued 5:05 PM CST, Thursday, March 3, 2016/

Surface map valid for Friday afternoon.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Snow moves into Northern Minnesota Friday morning, spreads farther south/east Friday afternoon.


Surface map valid for Friday evening.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Snow ends from northwest-southeast across the Northland Friday evening/overnight.

Purple shaded area on map=Winter Weather Advisory.  More information at the link below.  Source,

Winter weather advisory:

This could be my last snowfall map I have to issue until next Fall, although I doubt it will be.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  March 3, 2016

Started off with quite a bit of cloudiness but sunshine has made an appearance as clouds decreased from NW-SE this afternoon.  Highs were in the upper 20s to lower 30s which is where we should be in early March.  Winds today were out of the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 3)

High pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest tonight while low pressure which was over Southwest Canada late this afternoon heads southeast into the Northern Plains by daybreak.  Partly or mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight with lows in the single digits, teens to around 20 degrees but the typical cold spots in far Northern Minnesota could drop a few degrees below zero.  Winds will be out of west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph which will shift to the south or southeast Overnight.

Friday and Friday night (March 4)

A snowy Friday ahead!

An area of low pressure is forecast to track from Northern North Dakota to Central Minnesota to far Southeast Wisconsin from Friday morning through early Saturday morning -- This system will bring accumulating snow to the Northland with snow spreading from west to east during the morning and afternoon hours...Snow will then taper off from northwest-southeast Friday night.

This will be a rather strong system with a nice thermal gradient in place with 850mb temperatures ranging from around +6C in Southwest Minnesota to -10C in Northeast Minnesota.  Moisture will also increase with PWATS approaching 0.50" on Friday.  Mid level lapse rates will also be steepening tomorrow and are forecast to approach 6.0-7.0 c/km -- This could help to produce bursts of heavier snowfall in parts of the Northland on Friday.

Highs tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Friday night in the teens to around 30 degrees.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (March 5-7)

Dry this weekend with highs on Saturday in the 30s to around 40 degrees, lows Saturday night will be in the teens and 20s.  Warming up Sunday as highs top out in the 40s and 50s with lows Sunday night mainly in the 30s.

Southerly flow kicks in later this weekend as low pressure and an upper level trough become establish to our west/southwest, moisture and warm air advection will begin as early as Sunday but more so by Monday, that's when we could see a few showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms start to develop/affect the Northland.  High temperatures on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(March 8-13)

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday (8th) as low pressure lifts northeast through the Upper Midwest -- Elevated instability increases in our area Monday night and Tuesday and this combined with steep mid level lapse rates along with a rather moist airmass given the time of year should be enough to trigger a few thunderstorms early next week.

The remainder of the long range could end up dry in our area but a new storm might develop across the Rockies or Plains next weekend which could bring some rain to our area if it comes far enough north on the 12th-13th.

Above average temperatures are expected from the 8th-13th.


Timing:  Noon Friday until 9 PM CST Friday.

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 7 to 12.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming variable late.

.Friday...  Clouding up early.  Snow arriving after 10 AM with snow during the afternoon.  High 26 to 31.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday night...  Snow early with lingering snow showers and flurries late.  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-4".  Low 23 to 26.  Wind east around 10 mph becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 32 to 37.

.Saturday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

.Sunday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Monday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  30
Low:  11

Sunrise Friday:  6:42 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   6:00 PM CST