Tuesday, March 29, 2016

March 29, 2016 Weather Report - Rain late tonight and Wednesday

/Issued 4:52 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 29, 2016/

Dry this evening but rain develops/spreads northeast into the Twin Ports toward midnight.  Water vapor satellite imagery and surface analysis from late this afternoon and forecast storm track thru Thursday morning.  

12z WRF-ARW model total rainfall forecast ending at 7 AM Thursday.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Surface map forecast for Wednesday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.


Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across much of the Central and Southern Plains on Wednesday.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

Yellow=Slight risk for severe thunderstorms (2)
Light green=Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (1)

Note:  Non-severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow as far north as the Southern 1/2 of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  March 29, 2016

A nice spring day under a partly or mostly cloudy sky.  Highs were in the mid 50s to low 60s with 40s closer to Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with east winds near Lake Superior.  Surface map at 3 PM featured high pressure of 1026mb over the Eastern Great Lakes with low pressure averaging 994mb covering the Central Rockies.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 29)

Low pressure will head out into the Western High Plains while a cold front moves into the Northwest half of Minnesota.  Rain will overspread most of the Northland by late tonight as a warm and moist advection pattern occurs ahead of the cold front and area of low pressure.  Stronger winds aloft of 100-130 knots to our southwest and also to our N/NE will also help in generating some rain later tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s with south, east or north winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday night (March 30)

A soggy Wednesday ahead as occasional rain affect portions of the area  -- An area of low pressure is forecast to track from West Central Nebraska to far Southwest Wisconsin while two cold fronts move south/east through the Northland.  Highs tomorrow will mainly be in the 40s with south, east or north winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Lingering chances for light rain or possibly some snow for Wednesday night but no major snow accumulations are expected the way it looks now.  Lows tomorrow night will be in the 30s with north or northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Thursday through Saturday (March 31-April 2)

Light rain or snow is possible on Thursday as low pressure tracks from Southern Wisconsin to Southeast Ontario Province -- That system combined with another disturbance digging south/east toward the Upper Midwest will make things a tad unsettled on Thursday.

Another round of snow or mixed precipitation is possible from Friday PM into Saturday AM as low pressure moves south/east toward the Upper Great Lakes, this system could produce around 1-2" of snow in parts of the Northland.

Highs on Thursday and Friday are forecast to be in the 30s and 40s with highs on Saturday in the 20s and 30s.  Lows Thursday night and Friday night will be in the 20s and 30s with teens in Northern Minnesota.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(April 3-7)

Below average temperatures are expected during most of the long range.  Could be some snow or rain mainly in Western-Southern areas on Sunday (3rd)  Another system could bring some rain or snow to the Northland sometime from the 5th-7th.


.Tonight...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Rain developing after Midnight.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph with east winds near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday...  Occasional rain.  High 40 to 45.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday night...  Occasional light rain which could mix with snow at times.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Occasional light rain which could mix with snow at times.  High 35 to 38.

.Thursday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain or snow possible late.  High 35 to 40.

.Friday night...  Snow showers.  Low 20 to 25.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  40
Low:   23

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:51 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:36 PM CDT