Thursday, March 10, 2016

March 10, 2016 Weather Report: 50s and 60s on the way for Friday-Saturday (Near record high possible in Duluth on Saturday) Rain and fog by Sunday; Rain,Snow and colder mid-late next week; 10-20" of rain has fallen the past few days in parts of Arkansas and Louisiana

/Issued 4:44 PM CST, Thursday, March 10, 2016/

Continuing to watch the middle of next week for a storm that could develop and impact the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes with rain and accumulating snow.  One thing that looks pretty certain in the computer models is a return to colder temperatures after next Tuesday, winter is not over, but then again its only March.

The narrow band of snow that put down anywhere from a coating up to 2.5" of accumulation showed up rather nicely on visible satellite imagery this afternoon.  Source, COD website.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

7-day precipitation forecast valid through March 17, 2016.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Still looks like a wetter pattern developing across Minnesota and Wisconsin with possible 1-2"+ precipitation totals by late next week.

Here's a rainfall map from the Southern Plains from 6 AM March 9 through 6 AM March 10.  Source, WSI.

March 1-9, 2016 average temperature and their departure from average
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*Duluth, Minnesota:  26.8 degrees, +5.2 degrees above average
*International Falls, Minnesota:  20.2 degrees, +1.9 degrees above average
*Twin Cities, Minnesota:  36.8 degrees, +8.8 degrees above average
*St. Cloud, Minnesota:  34.3 degrees, +9.8 degrees above average

Note:  Unseasonably mild temperatures should continue into early next week so the temperature departures listed above will continue to increase.

Historic flooding has been occurring the past few days over parts of the Southern U.S.  Here are some selected rainfall totals ending at 2 PM today, Thursday, March 10, 2016

Source:  Weather Prediction Center

Hamburg, Arkansas:  13.50"
Eudora, Arkansas:  12.80"
Little Rock, Arkansas:  5.38"

2 NNW of Monroe, Louisiana:  20.90"
Swartz, Louisiana:  19.00"
Shreveport, Louisiana:  10.41"

Greenville, Mississippi:  10.58"
Memphis, Tennessee:  7.31"

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  March 10, 2016

It took a while for the clouds to finally burn off but they did this afternoon and as of late afternoon the only remaining clouds were over far Northeast Minnesota with generally sunny or mostly sunny skies elsewhere.  Highs today ranged from the mid 30s to mid 40s with west winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 10)

High pressure exits to the east of the Upper Midwest while a warm front lifts northeast out of the Northern Plains.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected tonight with patchy fog possible.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s as winds turn to the south at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday and Friday night (March 11)

Mild and dry.  Highs on Friday will be in the 40s and 50s with 60s in Western-Southern portions of the area.  Lows Friday night will be in the 30s and 40s.  A cold front will move east out of the Northern Plains and will move into the Northland by Friday night -- Could be some clouds as this front moves in but no precipitation.  Winds tomorrow will be out of the south at 10 to 20 mph with south or east winds tomorrow night at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Saturday through Monday (March 12-14)

Dry on Saturday with highs in the 50s and 60s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior, lows Saturday night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Rain chances will be on the increase late Saturday night through Monday due to a frontal boundary over the Upper Midwest while moisture and low pressure approaches from the south.  Could also be dealing with some fog and drizzle especially near Lake Superior on Sunday.

High temperatures on Sunday and Monday will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s near Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Low to Medium.

(March 15-20)

Big changes in the weather later next week.

Will start off the long range with more above average temperatures on Tuesday (15th) after that it does look like will have below average temperatures from the 16th-20th.

Precipitation is also possible from the 15th-18th as a low pressure system moves into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes -- Exact details on how this system plays out is uncertain but there is potential for rain as well as accumulating snow in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during the middle/end of next week.


.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph becoming variable.

.Friday...  Mostly sunny.  High 51 to 56 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Note:  Record high temperature for March 12th is 55 degrees set in 1903.

.Saturday night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Rain possible late.  Low 33 to 38.

.Sunday...  Rain possible.  Areas of fog.  High 33 to 38.

.Sunday night...  Rain possible.  Areas of fog.  Low 33 to 38.

.Monday...  Showers possible.  High 42 to 47.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  32
Low:  16

Sunrise Friday:  6:28 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   6:10 PM CST