Thursday, February 25, 2016

February 25, 2016 Weather Report - 30s Friday; 40s to around 50 degrees on Saturday with 60s possible over Southern Minnesota

/Issued 4:52 PM CST, Thursday, February 25, 2016/

Filtered storm reports map for February 24, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.  Note:  57 filtered preliminary tornado reports during the past two days; 492 severe weather reports.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or greater)
Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00" or greater in diameter)

Filtered storm reports map for February 23, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

That's a lot of warnings.  A map showing all the warnings that have been issued during the past few days.

  Red polygons=Tornado warning; Dark blue polygons=Severe thunderstorm warning.

*Over 500 combined severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings were issued across the Southern and Eastern U.S. on February 22-23.  217 tornado warnings; 300 severe thunderstorm warnings.

A plot of lightning strikes from Monday-Wednesday, February 22-24, 2016.  Wow.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

A slight chance for at least 4" of snow on Sunday in far Northeast Minnesota (Blue outlined area on the map)  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 25, 2016

Gusty winds and seasonable temperatures in the Northland today.  Sunshine in parts of the area during the morning hours gave way to a mix of sun/clouds during the afternoon.  There's been some flurries and light snow showers moving south/southeast through parts of the area.  Highs were in the 20s to around 30 degrees with north or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 25)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few evening flurries or snow showers.  High pressure over the Northern Plains this afternoon will move into the Upper Midwest tonight.  Lows will be in the single digits and teens with north or northwest winds becoming west or southwest late.

Friday and Friday night (February 26)

An area of low pressure will move into Northern Ontario while a warm front heads east out of the Northern Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Friday with highs in the 30s with 40s possible in Southwest portions of the Northland.  Lows Friday night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Saturday through Monday (February 27-29)

Mild on Saturday with highs in the 30s and 40s with 50s possible in parts of East Central Minnesota.  Lows Saturday night will range from the teens and 20s in Northern Minnesota to the 30s in Eastern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin.

A cold front will move south out of Ontario Province on Saturday, this front is expected to pass through the Northland Saturday night and settle south of our area on Sunday as low pressure tracks east/southeast out of the Northern Plains -- There is a chance for some snow late Saturday night and Sunday in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with light snowfall amounts possible.  Note:  There could also be some rain or freezing rain over Southern portions of the Northland late Saturday night or Sunday morning.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with nearly steady or slowly falling temperatures in parts of the area.  Lows Sunday night will be in the teens and 20s with single digits in far Northeast Minnesota.

Another area of low pressure moves southeast into the Upper Midwest on Monday bringing with it a chance for light snow with highs on Monday in the 20s and 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(March 1-5)

Near to below average temperatures during the long range with no major storms affecting the Northland the way it looks now.


.Tonight...  Scattered snow showers and flurries this evening otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  Breezy early.  Low 11 to 16.  Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 5 to 15 mph and shifting to the west late.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.  Wind southwest at 15 to 20 mph.

.Friday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 43 to 48.

.Saturday night...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Freezing drizzle possible late.  Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday...  Light snow possible.  Freezing drizzle possible early.  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35 early with temperatures falling into the 20s.

.Sunday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 27 to 32.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  28
Low:  10

Sunrise Friday:  6:55 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   5:49 PM CST