Tuesday, February 23, 2016

February 23, 2016 Weather Report - Scattered snow showers into Wednesday (Patchy drizzle/fog this evening) Close to 40 degrees on Saturday; Snow possible Sunday

/Issued 5:10 PM CST, Tuesday, February 23, 2016/

A classic setup for severe weather today with a deepening surface low (Red L on map) strong mid/upper level winds and dry air approaching from the west or southwest while a strong low level jet out of the south or southeast pumps moist air north out of the Gulf Of Mexico.  Source, water vapor satellite image; http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

A busy 24 hours ahead with a variety of weather headlines in effect as a powerful storm moves northeast out of Northern Louisiana.  Winter storm warning for Chicago and for areas west and north of Detroit.  Flash flood watches in parts of the Southeast and Eastern U.S.; Tornado watch in parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

Severe weather outbreak is well underway across the Northern Gulf Coast States -- Approaching a dozen tornado reports as of 4 PM today with the bulk of them at least so far occurring in the state of Louisiana.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or stronger)
Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00" in diameter or larger)

Still a few days away and things could change as the long range computer models have changed quite a bit for this weekend compared to what they had been showing in previous days, but for now there is a chance for some snow in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin especially on Sunday, February 28th in the white outlined area on the map, this doesn't look like a major snow event at this time but a few inches of snow are possible.  Source, Weather Prediction Center, surface map valid for Sunday morning.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 23, 2016

An area of low pressure along with a cold front has been moving through the Northland today, this system brought snow and mixed precipitation to the area with bursts of heavier snow which put down about 2-5" of accumulation in parts of Northern and Northeast Minnesota.  Temperatures were on the mild side despite the wintry precipitation today with highs topping out in the 30s.  Winds were out of the south or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 23)

Areas of drizzle and fog with lingering light snow this evening as low pressure and a cold front push off to the east.  Additional snowfall accumulations up to 1" are possible this evening.  Mostly cloudy skies will continue through the night with lows in the 20s to around 30 with teens across Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday night (February 24)

The big weather story on Wednesday will be a powerful low pressure system which moves northeast from Western Tennessee to Western New York -- This storm is already producing severe weather over the deep South today and tonight and will bring heavy rain and a threat for severe storms to the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday with a swath of significant snow on the backside of this storm from parts of Southern Missouri northeast to Michigan, this storm won't bring any snow to the Northland but it will help to produce a northerly wind which could lead to some lake effect snow showers near Lake Superior as 850mb temperatures gradually cool during the day.  Elsewhere in the Northland expect occasional flurries.  Highs will be in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the north at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (February 25-27)

A chance for lake effect snow showers continues on Thursday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin, mainly dry elsewhere as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 20s with lows Thursday night in the teens and 20s.  Mainly dry Friday and Saturday with milder temperatures.  Highs on Friday will be in the 30s with 20s in far Northeast Minnesota and a shot at 40 degrees near the Brainerd Lakes, lows Friday night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Highs on Saturday are forecast to be in the 30s and 40s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Low to Medium.

(February 28-March 4)

Temperatures will be up and down quite a bit during the long range with no persistent cold or persistent warm air, instead it's looking like 1 day of cold, 1 day of milder temperatures.  A pool of arctic air will be lurking to our north/northeast from February 28th-March 2nd and there is a chance for this frigid air to move further south and into the Upper Midwest or Great Lakes sometime between February 29-March 2.

A light snowfall event is possible on the 28th and 29th of February.


.Tonight...  Snow showers, flurries, patchy drizzle and fog this evening.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 28 to 33.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 23 to 28.

.Thursday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 12 to 17.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35

.Friday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 38 to 43.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  27
Low:     9

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:58 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:46 PM CST