Sunday, February 14, 2016

February 14, 2016 Weather Report - Light snow continues this evening; Near 30 degrees on Monday; 22% ice coverage on the Great Lakes (Greatest amount so far this winter)

/Issued 4:14 PM CST, Sunday, February 14, 2016/

Two systems producing snow today.  Will start with the weaker of the two which is affecting Minnesota today with mostly light snowfall as a warm front moves east out of the Northern Plains.  The second system (Stronger of the two) is moving east into the Ohio Valley with heavier pockets of snow today with that one.  Source, water vapor satellite image;

Ice coverage on Lake Superior is up to 11% now thanks to the recent cold snap, though this is still well below average for mid February.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Last week's temperature departure map.  A cold one! 6-10 degrees below average last week in the Twin Ports.

Last week's precipitation departure map.  Above average precip totals in far Northeast Minnesota and in parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Drier than average in Eastern Minnesota.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

February 7-13, 2016

High temperatures:

2/7:  35 F/+13 degrees above normal
2/8:  16 F/-6 degrees below normal
2/9:  10 F/-12 degrees below normal
2/10:  10 F/-13 degrees below normal
2/11:  12 F/-11 degrees below normal
2/12:  9 F/-14 degrees below normal
2/13:  11 F/-12 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

2/7:  16 F/+12 degrees above normal
2/8:  3 F/-1 degree below normal
2/9:  -3 F/-7 degrees below normal
2/10:  -11 F/-15 degrees below normal
2/11:  -11 F/-16 degrees below normal
2/12:  -9 F/-14 degrees below normal
2/13:  -17 F/-22 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.13"
Normal:  0.17"
Departure:  -0.04" below normal

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*Average temperature so far this month through the 13th:  10.5 degrees (-2.2 degrees below normal)  7 days so far this month with a sub-zero low temperature, the average for February is 10 days.

*5 consecutive days with a sub-zero low temperature (9th-13th)  That streak ends tonight.

*17 days so far this winter with a sub-zero low temperature - The average during an entire winter (Dec-Feb) 34 days.  Note:  Climate normal period 1981-2010.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 14, 2016

There's been a little bit of snow in parts of the Northland today as warmer air spreads east into the Upper Midwest.  A warm front has moved into the Eastern Dakotas as of late afternoon with low pressure of 1004mb over Western Manitoba Province.  Highs today were in the teens with south or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 14)

Light snow and flurries will continue most of the night as a warm front moves into Minnesota.  Mostly cloudy skies with lows in the single digits and teens.  Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph.  Note:  Total snowfall accumulations will generally be around 1" across the Northland tonight but snowfall totals of 2-4" are possible in the Arrowhead of Minnesota thanks to some lake enhanced snow as southerly winds blow across Lake Superior.

Monday and Monday night (February 15)

A couple areas of low pressure, one passing by to our north/northeast with another one diving southeast out of the Northern Plains combined with a cold front which moves through the Northland Monday night will keep the weather a little bit unsettled as scattered snow showers and flurries linger across the area along with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Highs tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens and 20s.  South or southwest winds through Monday evening at 10 to 20 mph with south or northwest winds late Monday night.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (February 16-18)

Still a risk for a few flurries and snow showers on Tuesday with highs in the 20s and 30s, lows Tuesday night will be range from the teens below to around 10 above zero.

Mainly dry on Wednesday with highs in the teens and 20s, lows Wednesday night will be in the single digits and teens.

A chance for some patchy light snow or mixed precipitation for Thursday as warmer air spreads back into the Upper Midwest.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 20s and 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(February 19-24)

An area of low pressure is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes late this week -- This system could bring some rain or snow to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Friday into early Saturday morning, whatever does fall looks to be on the light side though.

A weak clipper or two possibly bringing a minor snowfall event to parts of the Northland on the 21st and between the 23rd-24th, timing and track subject to change.

Above average temperatures from the 19th-21st followed by near average temperatures from the 22nd-24th.


.Tonight...  Light snow and flurries mainly before Midnight.  Total snowfall accumulations around 1".  Mostly cloudy.  Not as cold.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Scattered snow showers or flurries possible otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 27 to 32.

.Tuesday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

.Wednesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  24
Low:     6

Sunrise Monday:  7:13 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:33 PM CST