Saturday, February 13, 2016

February 13, 2016 Weather Report - A night with no wind chill advisory! Skiff of snow on Sunday; Close to 30 above by Monday

/Issued 5:45 PM CST, Saturday, February 13, 2016/

Snowfall accumulation forecast ending at 6 PM CST Sunday -- Very light amounts of snow in most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with heavier snowfall totals over parts of the Dakotas into Western and Southern Minnesota.  Note:  Southerly wind coming off Lake Superior could produce lake effect snow showers Sunday into early Monday morning along the North Shore of Lake Superior with perhaps a couple inches of snow mainly over Cook County in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Source, 21z RAP model.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 13, 2016

A nice looking day with a lot of sunshine but temperatures were on the chilly side with highs in the single digits to lower teens which is roughly 10-15 degrees colder than normal for mid February.  Winds today were out of the west, north or south at 5 to 15 mph.  Arctic high pressure of 1034mb covered the Great Lakes down toward the Ohio Valley late this afternoon - The heart of this blast of frigid air was over the Northeast U.S. and Quebec Province today with 850mb temperatures of -30 to -36C; 500mb temperatures of -40 to -48C; and 500mb heights at around 498 meters - Very impressive!

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 13)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Still cold with lows in the teens below to single digits above zero but 20s below are possible for one more night in the traditional cold spots.  High pressure will be off to our east tonight while low pressure moves into the Northern Plains - Snow associated with this system will remain west/southwest of the Northland tonight.  Winds tonight will be out of the south or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday night (February 14)

A warm front will move into the Upper Midwest on Sunday - Expect some light snow and snow flurries around the area but with only minor accumulations.  Cloudier skies tomorrow compared to what we have seen the past few days.  Highs on Sunday will be in the teens with lows Sunday night in the single digits and teens.  Winds will be out of the south or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (February 15-17)

A few snow showers or flurries on Monday otherwise things look pretty dry and quiet weather-wise from Monday through Wednesday.  Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens and 20s Monday night and ranging from the single digits to around 20 degrees for Tuesday night.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(February 18-23)

Above average temperatures from the 18th-23rd -- Looking like will have high temperatures make it into the 30s, possibly even into the 40s in some parts of the area for Thursday and Friday (11th-12) and perhaps during next weekend too.  Note:  50s could make it as far north as Southern Minnesota later this week.


.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 4 below to 9 below.  Wind south around 10 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible especially during the afternoon.  High 15 to 20.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  Total snowfall accumulations around 1" or less.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  High 27 to 32.

.Monday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Tuesday night...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  24
Low:     6

Sunrise Sunday:  7:15 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   5:31 PM CST