Saturday, January 23, 2016

January 23, 2016 Weather Report - Around 30 F Sunday; Snow Monday; Near 40 degrees in parts of Minnesota by late next week, 50s in the Dakotas! Late Jan-early Feb storm potential?

/Issued 5:10 PM CST, Saturday, January 23, 2016/

A light snowfall event remains possible on Monday.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  January 23, 2016

A pretty nice day for late January.  Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies today.  There's been some echoes showing up on radar but most of this has been in the form of virga or precipitation that isn't reaching the ground.  Highs today were in the 20s with a breezy south or southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Surface map late this afternoon places a 1004mb low over Southern Manitoba Province - A fair amount of warm air advection continues to spread into the Northland out ahead of this low this afternoon with 3 PM 850mb temperatures of +2 to +4C in Western parts of the Northland to -4C in extreme Northeast Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 23)

An area of low pressure and a cold front will slowly drop southeast into North Central Minnesota tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected.  Some light snow is possible later tonight with an inch or less of accumulation especially north of the Iron Range.  Lows will be in the teens and 20s with south, west or northeast winds at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Sunday and Sunday night (January 24)

Low pressure and a cold front will remain over the Upper Midwest on Sunday with little movement to the south or east.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on the way for tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies tomorrow night.  Could be some light snow or flurries in parts of the area especially by Sunday night.  Highs will be in the 20s and 30s with lows mainly in the 20s.  Winds will shift to the east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Monday through Wednesday (January 25-27)

Snow on the way for Monday!  An area of low pressure over the Upper Midwest will move slowly toward the east while another low heads northeast out of the Central Plains - Both of these lows should help to bring light snowfall to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Monday with snow tapering off from SW-NE Monday night.

Mainly dry on Tuesday.  A chance for snow showers or flurries returns to the area late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as low pressure moves southeast into Ontario Province.

Highs on Monday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Monday night in the teens and 20s.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tuesday night in the single digits and teens.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the teens to around 20 degrees.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Low to Medium.

(January 28-February 3)

A late week thaw! Model guidance cranks out widespread 30s in most of Minnesota with 40s even possible in Western portions of the state for Friday-Saturday (January 29-30) The key to this warm up will hinge upon the track of a surface low late in the week, if it remains north of the border which is what the computer models are showing today, then a mild Pacific flow will overspread the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest; If this low tracks farther south, then it probably will end up cooler than what guidance is showing today.  Stay tuned!  As for precipitation potential - Could be some mixed precipitation on January 29th-30th in parts of the Northland.

Still seeing signs of a more potent system coming out of the Rockies and Plains between January 31-February 3 but differences in the storm track are quite large between the EURO (Warmer solution with snow or mixed precip) vs. the EURO ensemble model which is colder due to a more southern storm track.

Note:  Another thing to watch will be the wind direction as we could have a few days of east or northeast winds coming off Lake Superior which may cause some lake effect/enhanced snow from January 31st-February 3rd.


.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible after Midnight.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 27 to 32.  Wind becoming east around 10 mph.

.Sunday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Light snow.  High 25 to 30.

.Monday night...  Light snow ending late.  Total snowfall accumulations of around 2-3" possible.  Low 12 to 17.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Tuesday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Sunday:  7:43 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:59 PM CST