Friday, January 22, 2016

January 22, 2016 Weather Report - Flakes/patchy ice pellets Saturday; 30s by Sunday

/Issued 7:13 PM CST, Friday, January 22, 2016/

A stormier weather pattern could be setting up over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes during the last day or two of January into early February.  One time frame to monitor is from January 30th through February 2nd - This is when a storm system could come out of the Rockies or Plains, shown on the image below are two possible storm tracks (Red line and Green line on the map)  Source, 12z EUROPEAN ensemble model valid for Monday, February 1st, 2016;

There's still a chance for a light snowfall event on Monday, January 25th (White outlined area on map)  Source, Weather Prediction Center; Surface map valid for Monday morning, January 25, 2016.

Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  January 22, 2016

Quiet late January weather continues in our area - Sky conditions today varied from partly to mostly cloudy.  Snow flurries and light snow showers at times near Lake Superior but little if any accumulation.  Highs today in the teens and 20s with north or south winds at 10 to around 20  mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 22)

Ridge of high pressure which was over the Upper Midwest early this evening will move slowly off to the south/east tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur tonight with lows in the single digits and teens but some locations could drop a few degrees below zero.  Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday night (January 23)

An area of low pressure will move east/southeast out of Southern Saskatchewan Province on Saturday - A cold front attached to this low will drop southeast out of the Northern Plains and will move into the Upper Midwest by late Saturday night.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast tomorrow with a chance for a few snow showers or possibly some sleet in far Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Saturday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Saturday night also in the teens and 20s.  Winds tomorrow will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds tomorrow night out of the south or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Sunday through Tuesday (January 24-26)

A cold front will continue to drop through the Northland for Sunday and Monday while low pressure moves out of the Central Plains.  Some snow is possible from late Sunday night into Monday especially from East Central and Northeast Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin - A light snowfall accumulation of an inch to a few inches is possible in the aforementioned areas early in the week.

Highs on Sunday and Monday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday night in the 20s, lows Monday night will be in the teens and 20s.

Mainly dry on Tuesday with highs in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Low to Medium.

(January 27-February 2)

Clipper tracks for mid-late next week are uncertain with today's model runs.  There's a chance for these lows to stay off to our north limiting the chance for snow here in the Northland, however, other computer models track these systems more to the west/south which would give us a better chance for some snow.  The time frames to monitor are January 27-28, and the 29th-30th.

A larger storm could take shape over the Rockies or Plains between January 30th-February 2nd, this one if it tracks far enough to the north could bring snow or a mixture of precipitation to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin sometime between January 31st-February 2nd.

Near to below average temperatures on the 27th with near to above average temperatures from January 28th-February 2nd.


.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 6 to 11.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries or ice pellets possible.  High 22 to 27.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 28 to 33.

.Sunday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible late.  Low 20 to 25.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow possible.  High 25 to 30.

.Monday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 12 to 17.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Saturday:  7:44 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:58 PM CST