Monday, March 2, 2015

March 2, 2015 Weather Report - Snow moves into the Twin Ports late Tonight; Arctic air returns Tuesday Night

/Issued 3:41 PM CST, Monday, March 2, 2015/

Here it comes!  Water vapor satellite image from 4:15 PM CST.  Source, College of Dupage website. One low over the Southern/Central Rockies tracks east-northeast through Tuesday; the other low over Western Saskatchewan moves generally toward the east.

















Very strong jet stream winds of 150-180 knots late Tonight/Tuesday with the core of the strongest winds lined up from Central Nebraska into the Southern half of Minnesota and Central Wisconsin.  Should see some decent lift/heavier bands of snow develop just northwest/north of the core of the strong winds aloft.  This system will be a quick mover though due in part to the very strong winds aloft.  Source, 18z NAM 32km -- 250mb wind forecast valid Tuesday AM.  Source, tropicaltidbits.com
















Here's my updated snowfall accumulation map through Tuesday PM.













NWS Duluth hazards map.

Purple=Winter Weather Advisory.  More information at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory


















NWS Chanhassen hazards map.

Red=Blizzard Warning
Green=Blizzard Watch
Purple=Winter Weather Advisory

More info. on the blizzard warning can be found at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mpx&wwa=blizzard%20warning

















2014-15 winter stats (December-February)

Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

Average temperature:  13.1 degrees
Normal:  13.3 degrees
Departure:  -0.2 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.10"
Normal:  2.98"
Departure:  -0.88" below normal

Note:  This was the 31st driest winter on record

Total snowfall:  23.4"
Normal:  49.5"
Departure:  -26.1"

Note:  This was the 24th least snowiest winter on record.

International Falls, Minnesota

Average temperature:  7.3 degrees
Normal:  8.1 degrees
Departure:  -0.8 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.87"
Normal:  2.00"
Departure:  +0.87" above normal

Note:  This was the 29th wettest winter on record.

Total snowfall:  47.7"
Normal:  40.8"
Departure:  +6.6" above normal

Note:  This was the 16th snowiest winter on record.

Temperature departure map for December-February, 2014-15.  Source, ACIS/Midwest Regional Climate Center.

















Precipitation departure map for December-February, 2014-15.  Source, ACIS/Midwest Regional Climate Center.


















*Record warm winter in parts of California*
Source:  National Weather Service Sacramento, CA

San Francisco:

Average temperature:  57.0 degrees
Previous warmest:  55.7 degrees (1970)

San Jose:

Average temperature:  54.44 degrees
Previous warmest:  54.42 degrees (1996)

Eureka:

Average temperature:  52.20 degrees
Previous warmest:  52.0 degrees (1940)

Sacramento:

Average temperature:  53.88 degrees
Previous warmest:  52.73 degrees (1996)

Fresno:

Average temperature:  52.62 degrees
Previous warmest:  52.44 degrees (2014)

Weather Summary for March 2, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1034mb was over Eastern Indiana late This Afternoon.  Low pressure of 1008mb was centered along the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border -- other lows averaging 1004-1006mb were over the Central/Southern Rockies at 3 PM Today.  A cold front was centered over the Western Dakotas/Western High Plains region.

A good deal of sunshine was found across the Northland Today with highs in the mid to upper 20s which is pretty close to normal for early March.  Winds were out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 2)

Low pressure will move into Central Manitoba Tonight while another low moves east out of the Rockies and into Northern Kansas by daybreak.  A cold front will be connected to these lows and this boundary will move into Western Minnesota Overnight.

Clouds will increase over the Northland This Evening.  Snow develops in Southwest/Southern areas by mid or late Evening with snow gradually lifting north/east after Midnight.  Low temperatures will be in the teens with single digits possible in far Northeast Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the south or southeast at 10 to around 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (March 3)

One low passes north of us while another low passes south/east of the Northland.  A cold front connected to these lows will move through the area on Tuesday.

Snow will be falling across the entire Northland Tuesday Morning into the early Afternoon.  Snow will then taper off from west-east Tuesday Afternoon.  Mainly dry weather is expected for Tuesday Night.

High temperatures on Tuesday will mainly be in the 20s.  Arctic air returns Tuesday Night with lows in the single digits below to around 20 below.  Winds on Tuesday will be out of the south, west, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds Tuesday Night will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow could become an issue across parts of the Northland especially Tuesday Night.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (March 4-6)

Arctic high pressure will be in control of our weather on Wednesday and Thursday.  Looks dry but it will be very cold for the time of year.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the single digits below to around 10 above zero with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s below.  Highs on Thursday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Thursday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

A low pressure system passes by well to our north on Friday.  Most of the area should remain dry, although a few snow showers and flurries can't be ruled out especially in far Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Friday will warm into the 20s and maybe even the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(March 7-12)

Another low pressure system looks like it will pass off to our north on Sunday/Monday (7th-8th) A few spotty snow showers could occur in the Northland during that aforementioned time frame but that should be about it...Nothing major is expected during the 7th-12th.  Near to below average temperatures from the 7th-10th with near to perhaps above average temperatures on the 11th-12th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  3 AM Tuesday until Midnight CST Tuesday Night

.Tonight...  Clouding up This Evening.  Snow developing between 1-3 AM.  New snowfall accumulations of 1" or less by daybreak.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Snow until around 1 PM with lingering flurries possible after 1 PM.  Total snowfall accumulations of around 4".  High 20 to 25.  Wind south, becoming west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Breezy.  Colder.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 8 below.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow possible.

.Wednesday...  Cold.  Mostly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

.Wednesday Night...  Frigid.  Mostly clear.  Low 10 below to 15 below.

.Thursday...  Mostly sunny.  High 10 to 15.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 0 to 5.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  29
Low:  12

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:45 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   5:57 PM CST

Tim