Sunday, March 15, 2015

March 15, 2015 Weather Report - Record warmth in the Northland Today; Very mild Tonight; Rain showers on Monday (Snowflakes up North?)

/Issued 5:00 PM CDT, Sunday, March 15, 2015/

Not a lot of precipitation on Monday, but there should be a little bit of rain or snow with precipitation totals generally less than 0.10".  Source, 12z WRF-ARW model; TropicalTidbits.com















*RECORD WARMTH IN THE NORTHLAND TODAY*
Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

-Record high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.  The high temperature 63 degrees Today, March 15th breaking the previous record high temperature of 60 degrees which was set in 2010.

-Record high temperature at International Falls, Minnesota.  The high temperature 65 degrees Today, March 15th which breaks the previous record high temperature of 57 degrees which was set in 2012.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

March 8-14, 2015

High temperatures:

3/8:  42F/11 degrees above normal
3/9:  51F/19 degrees above normal
3/10:  58F/26 degrees above normal
3/11:  50F/18 degrees above normal
3/12:  47F/14 degrees above normal
3/13:  58F/25 degrees above normal
3/14:  56F/23 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

3/8:  21F/7 degrees above normal
3/9:  29F/14 degrees above normal
3/10:  34F/19 degrees above normal
3/11:  29F/13 degrees above normal
3/12:  34F/18 degrees above normal
3/13:  31F/15 degrees above normal
3/14:  35F/18 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  Trace
Normal:  0.32"
Departure:  -0.32" below normal

One extreme to the next! So far below average in the temperature department for several weeks, but then this happened last week...Way above average temperatures!  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.




















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.























Weather Summary for March 15, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 994mb was over Western Ontario as of 5 PM Today.  A cold front was in Western Minnesota.  A good deal of mid/high level cloudiness across the area Today but this didn't prevent temperatures from soaring into the 60s in the Northland with lower 70s over the Brainerd Lakes.  The only cool spot was along the immediate North Shore of Lake Superior.  Winds Today were out of the northwest or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 15)

A cold front tracks through the Northland Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur with lows in the 30s and 40s.  There could be some rain or snow in far Western/Northern areas toward daybreak.  Winds will be out of the west or north at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts during the Evening.

Monday and Monday Night (March 16)

Most of the Northland should get at least a little bit of precipitation during the day on Monday, this is good news since we have been extremely dry, the bad news is that whatever precipitation falls is expected to be on the light side.  Cooler temperatures will be the bigger weather story during this period.

Expect a considerable amount of cloudiness on Monday with partly to mostly cloudy skies Monday Night.

Areas of light rain or snow are expected on Monday with dry weather for Monday Night.  

Note:  The greatest potential to see some snow on Monday should be over the Iron Range and along the Borderland, I don't think the snow will stick unless a heavier burst of snow lingers over a location for a period of time, if that happens then there could be a slushy coating to inch of snow, but again I think those chances are very low.

High temperatures on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s with falling temperatures into the 30s in parts of the area.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 20s.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (March 17-19)

Dry on Tuesday with highs in the 30s to around 40 degrees, lows Tuesday Night will be in the teens and 20s.  There could be a few rain and or snow showers in parts of the area on Wednesday and Thursday but this doesn't look like a real big deal right now.  Highs Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be in the 30s and 40s with lows Wednesday Night in the 20s to lower 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(March 20-25)

Near to below average temperatures are expected from the 20th-25th.  No major storms during the long range, although recent runs per EUROPEAN and GFS have shown a potential rain or snow system sometime around the 23rd-25th time frame so that'll be something to watch this week to see if those trends hold up or vanish.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Unseasonably mild! Low 40 to 45.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west to northwest.

.Monday...  Cooler.  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible at times.  High 50 to 55 with temperatures falling through the 40s.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Thursday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 39 to 44.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  34
Low:  18

Sunrise Monday:  7:20 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:16 PM CDT

Tim