Thursday, March 12, 2015

March 12, 2015 Weather Report - Record warmth at International Falls Today; Mild temperatures continue thru the weekend. Winter snow depth stats included in this post

/Issued 4:57 PM CDT, Thursday, March 12, 2015/

If you're looking for wintry precipitation you'll have to travel to Ontario.  The system that will move through the Northland Tonight and Friday will bring snow and freezing rain to parts of Ontario through Friday with ice accumulations and several inches of snow expected north/northeast of Lake Superior.  Source, 18z WRF-NMM snowfall accumulation forecast;

Snow depth stats for this winter and last winter at Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location.


1" or greater snow depth from November 11th through March 12th (122 consecutive days)


1" or greater snow depth from November 28th through April 22nd (146 consecutive days)

Note:  Peak snow depth this winter was 13" on March 4th.  Peak snow depth last winter was 36" on February 21st.  We also had a snow depth of 34" as late as April 12th last year.


10" or greater snow depth from February 22nd through March 8th (16 consecutive days)


10" or greater snow depth from December 3rd through April 12th (130 consecutive days)

Note:  What a difference a year makes.  From one extreme to another.  Not so much for the number of days with at least 1" snow depth, but more so for the 10" or greater snow depth.  An amazing difference between this year and last year.

Weather Tidbits:

*50 degree high temperature at the Duluth Airport on Wednesday.  This tied with 1911 for the 3rd warmest March 11th on record.  All-time warmest is 60 degrees set in 1902; 2nd warmest is 57 degrees set in 2012.

*Record high temperature tied at International Falls, Minnesota Today.  The high temperature reached 56 degrees Today, March 12th.  This tied the previous record high for Today which was last set in 1996.

Weather Summary for March 12, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

An unseasonably warm airmass was over the Upper Midwest Today.  500mb heights were in the 564-570 meter range with 850mb temperatures of +4 to +10C per meso-analysis.  High temperatures were in the middle 50s to lower 60s with south or southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Temperatures were much cooler near Lake Superior Today thanks to an easterly breeze which kept high temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees which is still slightly above average for this time of year.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 12)

Low pressure which was over the Northern Plains late This Afternoon will track east into the Upper Midwest Tonight.  A warm front will lift slowly N/NE through Northern Minnesota while a cold front approaches from the west.  Will have partly to mostly cloudy skies in our area Tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s.  There is a chance for a few spotty showers in extreme Northern Minnesota but most of us should stay dry.  Winds Tonight will be out of the south, east, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (March 13)

Low pressure exits to our east while a cold front moves through Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Friday Morning.  There could be a few showers of rain or mixed precipitation in extreme Northern Minnesota, but like Tonight I think most of the Northland will stay dry Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.  Highs on Friday will be in the 30s in Northern Minnesota with 40s and 50s elsewhere.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Winds on Friday will be out of the southwest, north, or northwest with winds Friday Night out of the northwest.  Wind speeds will range from 10 to around 25 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (March 14-16)

Dry on Saturday with highs in the 30s in far Northeast Minnesota with 40s and 50s elsewhere, lows Saturday Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Dry weather continues on Sunday with highs in the 50s and 60s with 30s and 40s in Northeast Minnesota with the coolest temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

An area of low pressure along with a warm front and cold front will pass through the region from Sunday into Monday...This system could bring a few rain showers to the Northland on Monday but right now this does not look like a real big deal.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(March 17-22)

Near to above normal temperatures are expected on the 17th-18th, after that it looks like temperatures will be at or even below average from the 19th-22nd.  No major storms during the long range.


.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Monday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  33
Low:  16

Sunrise Friday:  7:26 PM CDT
Sunset Friday:   7:11 PM CDT