Monday, February 9, 2015

February 9, 2015 Weather Report - Snow is on the way; Winter Weather Advisory in effect for most of the Northland

/Issued 3:53 PM CST, Monday, February 9, 2015/

Model agreement is pretty good for Tuesday's snow event, but something could still go wrong, especially the way this winter has been around here.  The map below are forecasted snowfall totals for Tuesday and Tuesday Night.  The pink outlined area represents where snow amounts could be locally higher as east/southeast winds coming off Lake Superior lead to possible orographic lift/lake enhancement along the North Shore.












Purple shaded area on the map is a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY which is in effect for Tuesday and Tuesday Evening.  More information at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory















Link to Minnesota road conditions:  http://hb.511mn.org/#roadReports/layers=allReports,roadReports,winterDriving,weatherWarnings,otherStates

Link to Wisconsin road conditions:  http://www.511wi.gov/web/traffic/map.aspx?type=winterRoads#1

The Storm Prediction Center even has parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin in a general thunderstorm risk for Tuesday (Green shaded area on the map)  I don't think the thunderstorm chances are very high Tomorrow, but an isolated storm is certainly possible, and if one happens to form it will likely contain snow, sleet, or freezing rain.

















The following maps are from the Weather Prediction Center/NDFD.

6 AM Tuesday:  Low pressure over the Dakotas with precipitation breaking out north/east of the low centers.

Blue=Snow
Purple and orange colors=Icy/Mixed precipitation
















12 PM Tuesday:


















6 PM Tuesday:



















Note:  Been a while since there's been a decent snowfall here in the Twin Ports.

*Have to go back to November 11th to find a calendar day that had at least 3" of snow.

*The last time the Duluth Airport had at least 1" of snow was on January 26th.

*January 8th, the last time the Duluth Airport had at least 2" of snow.

I think there's a pretty good chance will top the 2" mark on Tuesday, decent shot breaking the 3" mark as well.  For those that have been waiting for snow, well Tuesday is your day, enjoy!

Weather Summary for February 9, 2015
Location:  northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Not a bad early February day as high pressure of 1026mb moved into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.  Sky conditions varied from partly cloudy to mostly sunny in parts of northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota to mostly cloudy in northern Minnesota.  Highs Today were in the 20s with lower 30s around the Brainerd Lakes.  Little if any wind Today, that's a little unusual.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 9)

High pressure moves north/east of the Northland Tonight as low pressure moves into the northern Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be common Tonight.  Expect some light snow to break out especially toward daybreak in western parts of the area.  Lows will be in the teens and 20s with winds turning to the east or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (February 10)

Low pressure tracks across the Upper Midwest and into the western/central Great Lakes region by late Tomorrow Night.  This system will bring accumulating snow to all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with the heaviest snowfall expected to occur during the day and into the early Evening hours.

Highs on Tuesday will mainly be in the 20s with lows Tuesday Night ranging from the single digits below zero in far northern Minnesota to the 20s in northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening at 10 to 20 mph, winds shift to the northwest later Tomorrow Night at 10 to 25 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (February 10-12)

Low pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday as arctic high pressure builds southeast out of Saskatchewan.  Highs on Wednesday will range from around zero to the 20s with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero.  Thursday looks mainly dry.  Thursday Night into Friday could feature a dusting of snow as a clipper system swings through the Upper Midwest.  Temperatures on Thursday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  Highs on Friday will be in the single digits and teens.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(February 14-19)

A minor snow event is possible sometime around the 14th-15th otherwise this period is looking kinda quiet around here.  Below average temperatures are expected from the 14th-19th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  9 AM Tuesday until Midnight CST Tuesday Night.

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 14 to 19.  Wind becoming east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Snow developing between 9 AM-11 AM with snow during the Afternoon.  High 20 to 25.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Snow early with lingering light snow and flurries through the night.  Total snowfall accumulations of around 4" possible.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph after Midnight.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25 with falling temperatures.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Very cold.  Low 8 below to 13 below.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 0 to 5 above.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible late.  Low 0 to 5 above.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  23
Low:    4

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:21 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   5:25 PM CST

Tim