Thursday, February 26, 2015

February 26, 2015 Weather Report - Record low tied at International Falls This Morning; Southern U.S. snow totals in this post; Cold/dry around here thru Saturday; Early thoughts on next Tuesday's system

/Issued 3:50 PM CST, Thursday, February 26, 2015/

Uh oh! This can't be right? Am I seeing things in the computer models Today? A low pressure system coming out of Colorado during the winter of 2014-15? Can't be right.  Anyways -- The long range computer models show a system ejecting out of the Rockies sometime early-mid next week while another system scoots east through Canada.  Based on what I'm seeing in the models Today, I think the greatest chance for a decent amount of snow would be in the blue outlined area on the map below.  Here in our neck of the woods, I think there's a pretty good chance for a dusting to possibly as much as a few inches of snow either Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.  Those are my thoughts at the moment.

This weekend could turn quite snowy/icy across a large portion of the Central Plains, but all of this fun stuff will stay off to our south.  Here's the forecast map for Saturday PM per NDFD.

Orange/Purple=Icy-Mixed precipitation

Low temperature report for This Morning February 26, 2015
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

3 SE of Cotton, MN:  -37F
Embarrass, MN:  -37F
Crane Lake, MN:  -35F
2 S of Brimson, MN:  -34F
3 S of Tower, MN:  -33F
25 E of Ely, MN:  -32F
3 E of Orr, MN:  -32F
Ely, MN:  -31F
Cook, MN:  -31F
International Falls, MN:  -32F
Phillips, WI:  -24F
Orr, MN:  -24F
Hayward, WI:  -24F
Littlefork, MN:  -23F
Glidden, WI:  -22F
Island Lake, MN:  -21F
Cass Lake, MN:  -20F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  -20F
Northome, MN:  -20F
Bigfork, MN:  -18F
Silver Bay, MN:  -17F
Duluth, MN (NWS)  -17F
Bruno, MN:  -16F
Cloquet, MN:  -15F
Superior, WI:  -15F
Gordon, WI:  -14F
Duluth, MN (Airport)  -15F
Siren, WI:  -14F
Winter, WI:  -11F

Southern snow totals from February 25, 2015
Source:  Weather Prediction Center

4.8 miles WNW of Albertville, Alabama:  11.5"
Curry, Alabama:  9.0"
Chidester, Arkansas:  8.0"

Oakman, Georgia:  9.0"
Chatsworth, Georgia:  8.0"
Bossier City, Louisiana:  4.0"

Troy, Mississippi:  9.5"
2 W of Tupelo, Mississippi:  5.0"
1 N of Conway, North Carolina:  10.0"

3 SE of Chapel Hill, North Carolina:  7.5"
8.9 miles north of Travelers Rest, South Carolina:  4.5"
Townsend, Tennessee:  9.0"

Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Record low temperature tied at International Falls, Minnesota Today, February 26, 2015.  Low temperature was 32 below zero which tied the previous record low of -32 which was set in 2011.

Weather Summary for February 26, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Arctic high pressure of 1040mb was over far Northeast Montana late This Afternoon.  Sunshine and well below average temperatures were found across the Northland on this late February day.  Highs were in the single digits to around 10 above zero with west or northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Friday Night (February 26-27)

Strong high pressure in the 1040-1045mb range will shift southeast of the Upper Midwest by Friday and Friday Night.  Clear to partly cloudy skies will continue during this period with lows Tonight in the single digits, teens, and 20s below with some 30s below possible once again the traditional cold spots.  Highs on Friday will be in the teens with lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens below zero.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest Tonight at around 12 mph or less.  Winds will be out of the west or southwest Friday and Friday Night at 10 to around 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (February 28-March 2)

A trough of low pressure along with a cold front will be moving through the Northland from Saturday Night into Sunday...This system could bring a dusting of snow to parts of the area from Saturday PM-Sunday AM.  Dry Sunday Afternoon into Monday.

Highs are forecast to be in the teens and 20s on Saturday with mainly 20s expected for Sunday and Monday.  Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(March 3-8)

A minor snow event remains possible on Tuesday/Wednesday (3rd-4th) Below average temperatures continue from the 3rd-8th although the coldest period looks to be from the 4th-6th.

Back tracking to the early week snow potential:  Computer models show two lows, one northwest of the Northland, the other across the Southern/Central Rockies.  The Canadian low moves almost due east while the Rockies low heads northeast.  No phasing is indicated between the lows, so it remains to be seen on how far north the deeper moisture can get.

Current thinking is for a light snowfall event affecting most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin sometime during the Tuesday/Wednesday (3rd-4th) time frame with a potential for a more significant snowfall remaining to our south and southeast.  Note:  Still several days away from this event so things could change.  Perhaps will see a more classic storm evolve in the computer models during the next few days, or maybe will just see another wimpy snowfall event...Gut feeling is toward the latter scenario at the moment.


.Tonight...  Clear.  Cold.  Low 7 below to 12 below.  Wind west to northwest around 12 mph.

.Friday...  Sunshine.  High 13 to 18.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 1 below to 6 below.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 16 to 21.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 8 to 13.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  28
Low:  11

Sunrise Friday:  6:52 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   5:51 PM CST