Sunday, February 15, 2015

February 15, 2015 Weather Report - Dusting of snow Tonight/Monday; Bitterly cold air returns on Tuesday

/Issued 4:12 PM CST, Sunday, February 15, 2015/

850mb temperature anomaly forecast valid for Thursday, February 19, 2015 per 12z EURO ensemble model.  This next batch of arctic air means business! No one will escape this one if you live east of the Rockies, the cold air will even affect Florida later this week.  To the west, the warmth continues.  Source, tropicaltidbits.com















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

February 8-14, 2015

High temperatures:

2/8:  22F/Normal
2/9:  27F/5 degrees above normal
2/10:  24F/1 degree above normal
2/11:  24F/1 degree above normal
2/12:  7F/16 degrees below normal
2/13:  18F/5 degrees below normal
2/14:  3F/21 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

2/8:  16F/12 degrees above normal
2/9:  14F/10 degrees above normal
2/10:  20F/16 degrees above normal
2/11:  -2F/7 degrees below normal
2/12:  -12F/17 degrees below normal
2/13:  3F/2 degrees below normal
2/14:  -11F/17 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.25"
Normal:  0.17"
Departure:  +0.08" above normal

Last week's temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.




















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.






















Weather Summary for February 15, 2015
Location:  northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A weak system approaching from the west/northwest resulted in skies turning mostly cloudy across our area Today.  There has also been a bit of light snow and flurries over northeast and east central Minnesota with visibilities in the snow generally in the 1-4 mile range.  Highs Today were in single digits with winds out of the south or east at around 10 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 15)

Mostly cloudy skies will continue Tonight and there will be some light snow and snow flurries around the area but accumulations should remain at 1" or less.  Lows will range from the teens below to single digits above zero with winds out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (February 16)

A cold front passes through the Northland on Monday.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with some lingering flurries or light snow showers possible.  Highs on Monday will be in the teens with lows Monday Night in the single digits above to teens below zero.  Winds will start out from the south or west Monday Morning with west or northwest winds locking in Monday Afternoon and Monday Night.  Wind speeds will be in the 10 to 20 mph range.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (February 17-19)

Bitter blast!  Heights drop into the 498-510 range through this period which indicates a frigid airmass.  850mb temperatures of -25 to -30C will also move over the area, so a very cold pattern any way you break it down.

A few flurries are possible on Tuesday but for the most the Tuesday-Thursday time period looks pretty dry.  High temperatures on Tuesday and Thursday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with highs on Wednesday in the single digits and teens below.  Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will range from the single digits to the 20s below with 30s below even possible in the traditional cold spots.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(February 20-25)

Below average temperatures look to continue from the 20th-25th.  A minor snow event is possible around the 20th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Light snow and flurries at times.  Mostly cloudy.  Snowfall accumulations less than 1".  Low 2 below to 3 above.  Wind south to southeast around 10 mph.

.Monday...  Snow showers or flurries possible otherwise considerable cloudiness.  High 15 to 20.  Wind south, becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 2 to 7.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 below to 15 below.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 2 below to 3 above.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 13 below to 18 below.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 2 below to 3 above.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  24
Low:    6

Sunrise Monday:  7:12 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:35 PM CST

Tim