Wednesday, February 11, 2015

February 11, 2015 Weather Report - Bitterly cold/dangerous wind chills Tonight-Thursday AM; Lake effect snow along the South Shore; More arctic air on the way Friday Night-Saturday

/Issued 3:07 PM CST, Wednesday, February 11, 2015/

A shot of arctic air during the next 24 hours.  The map below is the 850mb temperature and wind forecast valid for late Tonight per 18z 4km NAM.  Certainly enough cold air moving over Lake Superior to generate lake effect snow Tonight and on Thursday (black circled area on the map)  Source, PSU e-wall site.
















NWS hazards map.

Light blue=Wind Chill Advisory
Darker blue/purple=Lake Effect Snow Advisory/Winter Weather Advisory

















Snowfall map for Tuesday, February 10, 2015.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.  Text reports below.
















Snowfall report for February 10, 2015
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Wrenshall, MN (Carlton County)  6.3"
Grand Portage, MN (Cook County)  6.0"

25 E of Ely, MN (Lake County)  5.6"
5 S of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  5.3"
10 NW of Gunflint Lake, MN (Cook County)  5.0"

Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  5.0"
Canyon, MN (St. Louis County)  5.0"
20 N of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)  4.9"
Hermantown, MN (St. Louis County)  4.9"
Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)  4.8"


Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  4.5"
14 W of Isabella, MN (Lake County)  4.5"
Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing County)  4.5"
Alborn, MN (St. Louis County)  4.5"
4 SW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  4.5"

Duluth Heights, MN (St. Louis County)  4.4"
Remer, MN (Cass County)  4.0"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  4.0"
Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)  4.0"
Lutsen, MN (Cook County)  3.8"


Chisholm, MN (St. Louis County)  3.6"
1 E of Superior, WI (Douglas County)  3.5"
5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  3.4"  NWS total.
Beaver Bay, MN (Cook County)  3.3"
South Range, WI (Douglas County)  2.8"

Sarona, WI (Washburn County)  2.8"
Poplar, WI (Douglas County)  2.0"
Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County)  1.5"
Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  1.3"

*Wind Chill Advisory* in effect This Evening through Thursday Morning for all of northeast Minnesota.  More information at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=wind%20chill%20advisory

Weather Summary for February 11, 2015
Location:  northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1008mb was over eastern Ontario This Afternoon while high pressure of 1044mb builds southeast out of Saskatchewan.  A much colder day in the Northland under sunny to partly cloudy skies although there is a batch of mostly cloudy skies which is moving south/east out of northern Minnesota This Afternoon with some snow showers and flurries also occurring underneath this cloud deck.  Temperatures as of 3 PM were in the single digits and teens with northwest winds in the 10-25 mph range with a few higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 11)

Arctic high pressure builds into the northern Plains Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found over the area with a few snow showers and flurries for a time This Evening but there shouldn't be much in the way of accumulation.  Low temperatures will fall into the single digits, teens, and 20s below with winds out of the north or northwest at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts likely.  

Note:  Lake effect snow showers should ramp up in both coverage and intensity along the South Shore of Lake Superior Tonight and Thursday as -22 to -26C 850mb temperatures move over Lake Superior...This combined with a more favorable wind direction out of the NNW near the surface and NNE at 850mb will likely lead to a better setup for heavier lake effect snow showers.  Ashland and Iron Counties will likely get the brunt of the lake effect snow Tonight and Thursday, but a few inches of snow could accumulate as far west as Bayfield and maybe even into Douglas County.  More information at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=lake%20effect%20snow%20advisory

Thursday and Thursday Night (February 12)

High pressure will be in control of our weather on Thursday -- this high moves off to the east Thursday Night which will make way for a fast moving clipper system which approaches from the west/northwest.  Sunny to partly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with skies turning mostly cloudy Tomorrow Night.  Temperatures will be in the single digits this period with winds shifting around from the north-northwest to the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Note:  Snow showers and flurries are expected across the Northland Thursday Night with accumulations of an inch or less expected.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (February 13-15)

Low pressure exits to our east on Friday as another arctic high builds into the Upper Midwest for Friday Night and Saturday.  This high will then move off to the east by Sunday as another weak system approaches from the west/northwest.  A few snow showers and flurries are possible on Friday and again on Sunday but no major snow events are anticipated at this time.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the teens to around 20 degrees on Friday, highs on Saturday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero, highs on Sunday will be in the single digits.  Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s below, could even be some 30s below in the traditional cold spots.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(February 16-21)

Below average temperatures are expected from the 16th-21st.  A light snowfall event is possible on the 16th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WIND CHILL ADVISORY* for Duluth
Timing:  6 PM This Evening until 9 AM CST Thursday.

.Tonight...  Frigid.  Mostly cloudy for a time This Evening with possible flurries and snow showers.  Becoming mostly clear by Midnight.  Low 10 below to 15 below.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Wind chills 25 below to 35 below.

.Thursday...  Mostly sunny.  High 4 to 8.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest.  Morning wind chills 25 below to 35 below.

.Thursday Night...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Snow showers and flurries developing late.  Low 4 to 8.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Snow showers and flurries early otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  Total snowfall accumulations less than 1".  High 15 to 20.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 7 below to 12 below.

.Saturday...  Mostly sunny.  High 0 to 5 below.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 15 below to 20 below.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  23

Low:    5

Sunrise Thursday:  7:18 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:28 PM CST

Tim