Tuesday, February 10, 2015

February 10, 2015 Weather Report - Snow tapers off Tonight; Patchy freezing drizzle This Evening; Gusty NW winds develop late Tonight; Shot of arctic air Wednesday PM-Thursday. Updated snow totals in this post

/Issued 3:58 PM CST, Tuesday, February 10, 2015/

Updated snowfall totals as of 4 PM CST
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)  4.6"
3 N of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)  2.4"
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  3.0"
4 WSW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  2.8"
Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  2.0"

Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)  3.5"
Brule, WI (Douglas County)  1.5"
5 N of Motley, MN (Cass County)  3.0"
4 S of Bruno, MN (Pine County)  3.3"
3 E of Orr, MN (St. Louis County)  1.5"
5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  2.0"  NWS total thru 4 PM Today.

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 4:30 PM CST.  Source, WSI.

Snow will continue Tonight but will be decreasing in coverage and intensity from west to east in the Northland.  Use extreme caution if you will be traveling Tonight or Wednesday Morning as roads remain snow covered and slippery.

A link to Minnesota road conditions:  http://hb.511mn.org/#roadReports/layers=allReports,roadReports,winterDriving,weatherWarnings,otherStates

A link to Wisconsin road conditions:

Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect Tonight (Purple area on the map)  Source, NWS.

More information at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Today's system looked very cool on water vapor satellite image.  Here is the view from 2 PM Today.  Source, College of Dupage website.

A few thunderstorms even developed This Afternoon south of Minneapolis.  A very potent system Today.

Weather Summary for February 10, 2015
Location:  northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A snowy winter day across the Northland.  Low pressure centers of 1012-1014mb were over southeast Manitoba and southwest Minnesota as of 3 PM Today while a strong disturbance moves east through southern Minnesota while another one drops southeast out of southern Manitoba/northeast North Dakota.  This system brought widespread snow to the area Today with bands of heavy snow affecting parts of the area with visibilities dropping to a quarter mile at times.  Highs Today were in the 20s with southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 10)

The low pressure system which is bringing snow to the area Today will be moving east and exiting the Northland later Tonight.  Expect snow early Tonight which will give way to a lighter snowfall from west to east by mid Evening.  Additional flurries/snow showers are possible after Midnight.  Patchy freezing drizzle will also be possible mainly during the Evening.

 Low temperatures Tonight will be in the single digits below to 20s above zero with the coldest temperatures found in far northern Minnesota.  South or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph will shift to the northwest during the night and will increase to 10-25 mph with higher gusts possible.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow could develop later Tonight.

Note:  Total snowfall accumulations from this event will range from 2-5" in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Still a low chance that portions of the North Shore pick up around 6" due to possible lake enhancement.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (February 11)

Low pressure moves over the eastern Great Lakes and eventually into southeastern Ontario during this period as arctic high pressure builds into the northern Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.  There could be some snow showers and flurries around the Northland but accumulations shouldn't be more than a dusting or half inch.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s below.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 25 mph.  Note:  Lake effect snow showers could develop along the South Shore of Lake Superior.  On Wednesday, these lake effect snow showers could affect parts of Ashland and Iron Counties, and then Wednesday Night the threat could extend west into portions of Bayfield and Douglas Counties as winds veer a little more NNW.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (February 12-14)

A light snowfall event is possible Thursday Night-Friday AM as we see one shot of arctic air move away while the next one moves in during the Friday Night-Saturday time frame.  Temperatures on Thursday will be in the single digits and teens.  Highs on Friday will be in the teens to lower 20s with lows Friday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero with some teens below possible in northern Minnesota.  Highs on Saturday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(February 15-20)

Below average temperatures are forecast from the 15th-20th.  A possible light snow event sometime between the 15th-16th but for the most part it's looking relatively quiet around here during the long range.


Timing:  Until Midnight CST Tonight.

.Tonight...  Snow tapering to light snow and flurries This Evening.  Patchy freezing drizzle possible This Evening.  Considerable cloudiness with lingering flurries after Midnight.  Total snowfall accumulations of around 3-4".  Low 15 to 20.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph late.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow could develop Overnight.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible especially during the Afternoon.  High 20 to 25 with falling temperatures.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Snow showers or flurries possible early otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  Very cold.  Low 8 below to 13 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly sunny.  High 2 to 7.

.Thursday Night...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible after Midnight.  Low 2 to 7.

.Friday...  Snow showers or flurries possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 7 below to 12 below.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 0 to 5 below.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  23
Low:    5

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:19 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:27 PM CST