Wednesday, February 12, 2014

February 12, 2014 - Weather Report. Snow! Future radar included in this post.

/Issued 3:45 PM CST, Wednesday, February 12, 2014/

*Snowfall accumulation forecast for late Tonight and Thursday.

Refer to this post from earlier Today concerning the winter weather advisory, location and timing:

*Future radar per 18z Hi-Res NAM/WRF model.

Green colors indicate heavier snowfall.
Blue colors is a lighter snow.

2 AM Tonight:

5 AM Thursday Morning:

8 AM Thursday:

5 PM Thursday:

Today's Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Last night's weak system dropped anywhere from one tenth to about 1.5" of snow on the Northland, this system moved off to our east Today with plenty of sunshine occurring This Afternoon.  Highs were mainly in the teens and winds were out of the west, south, or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 12)

Clear skies early This Evening will give way to increasing cloudiness from west to east during the night as low pressure moves from Southern Saskatchewan late This Afternoon toward Eastern North Dakota by daybreak.

Snow will break out in Western-Northwest sections of the Northland around Midnight Tonight or an hour or so after Midnight.  This snow will move steadily toward the east and southeast during the predawn hours. Note:  There could be some light snow prior to Midnight mostly along the Minnesota-Ontario border but any accumulation should be less than 1" before Midnight up near the Canadian border.

Low temperatures Tonight will be in the single digits below to the teens above zero.  Winds will become south or east during the night at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts possible.

Thursday and Thursday Night (February 13)

A rather strong area of low pressure (993-996mb range) is forecast to move through Central/Eastern Minnesota Tomorrow Morning and through Northern Wisconsin Tomorrow Afternoon before moving into the Central-Eastern Great Lakes region by Tomorrow Night.  Note:  Most of the computer models keep the surface low south of the Twin Ports, although the NAM remains on a more northerly track and keeps the low to the north of the Twin Ports.  Should this more northern solution verify, then snow amounts in Duluth and Superior will probably be less than the 3-5" that is being predicted.

East winds coming off Lake Superior would usually be favorable for lake enhanced/effect snow along the North Shore, but with the lake nearly frozen over, I don't think will get much enhancement unless enough open patches of water can develop Tonight and Tomorrow Morning.  If Lake Superior ends up playing more of a role, then we could see snow totals exceed 5" during this event along the North Shore.  Something to keep an eye on.

So to recap:  There will be snow Tomorrow, but it will also decrease in intensity from west to east during the day as the area of low pressure heads east.

Flurries might linger into Thursday Evening, otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night with very cold temperatures with lows bottoming out in the single digits below to around 20 below.

Winds will shift from the south and east to the west/north at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (February 14-16)

Looks mainly dry through this period but there will be 2 things to keep an eye on.  1)  Is an area of low pressure dropping south/southeast out of the Northern Plains on Saturday, still looks like most of the snow with that disturbance will miss the Northland to the west/south.

The 2nd thing to watch will be an east wind which could develop from Saturday into early Sunday but with so much ice covering Lake Superior we probably won't see any lake effect snow this weekend despite the east wind and cold enough temperatures which would otherwise support such a thing.  Also by late this weekend a new system will be approaching the region from the west and that could lead to a little bit of snow or possibly some mixed precipitation by Sunday Night.

High temperatures will mainly be in teens on Friday.  Teens and 20s on Saturday and 20s and 30s on Sunday.  Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits and teens below to single digits above zero.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the single digits below to around 10 above.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(February 17-22)

Some light snow or a wintry mix of precipitation is possible on Monday as low pressure moves through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  Looks mainly dry for Tuesday/Wednesday (18th-19th)  May see another system bring some snow or mixed precipitation to the Northland sometime between the 20th-23rd.  Near to above average temperatures are expected through this period.


Timing:  3 AM until 4 PM CST Thursday.

.Tonight...  Increasing cloudiness.  Snow developing especially after 3 AM.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind west becoming east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Snow during the Morning with light snow and flurries during the Afternoon.  Total snowfall accumulations of 3-5" possible.  High 18 to 23.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest.

.Thursday Night...  Flurries possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Colder.  Low 5 below to 10 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Mostly sunny.  High 8 to 13.

.Friday Night...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 10 to 15.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  23
Low:    5

Sunrise Thursday:  7:16 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:30 PM CST