Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Frost threat Tonight! Very nice on Wednesday

Issued at 8:42 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 15th, 2012

  • Tonight:  Mostly clear and cool with areas of frost
  • Wednesday:  Dry and pleasant
  • Thursday:  A risk for showers or thunderstorms...Cool lake breezes

-Dark blue areas=Frost Advisory.
-Light blue areas=Freeze Warning.

*Map courtesy of the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

-Tonight's frost and freeze potential.

High temperature report for May 14th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  83F
International Falls, MN:  80F
Brainerd, MN:  86F
Hibbing, MN:  82F
Hayward, WI:  83F
Ashland, WI:  82F
Two Harbors, MN:  81F
Orr, MN:  81F
Pine River, MN:  82F
Aitkin, MN:  84F
Superior, WI:  81F
Phillips, WI:  82F
12 N of Isle, MN:  84F
Cass Lake, MN:  85F
Kabetogama, MN:  80F
Butternut, WI:  81F
Upson, WI:  81F
9 N of Bayfield, WI:  82F
Solon Springs, WI:  84F
Winter, WI:  81F

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1004mb has moved into Eastern Ontario Province This Evening with a cold front attached to this low extending from Lake Huron to Northern Missouri.  A ridge of high pressure averaging 1018-1022mb covered the Northern Plains and Manitoba Province.  A cooler day behind this cold front Today with highs in the 60s to lower 70s which is still near to slightly above average for mid-May.  Skies were partly to mostly sunny and there was also a touch of smoke in the air.  Winds were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

-Visible satellite image from just before sunset Today.  I can't confirm this, but the milky look to the sky on this satellite may be due to smoke/dust in the air.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow was in place over the Upper Midwest.  Upper level lows were over Eastern Ontario Province, East Texas and Nevada per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranged from 0 to -4C in Central/Northern Ontario Province to +2 to +4C in Northern Minnesota to +6 to +10C in Central, Western and Southern Minnesota.  Plenty of heat over the Western U.S. with widespread 80s and 90s early This Evening with 850mb temperatures of +20 to +28C.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (May 15th)

High pressure will settle into the Upper Midwest.  Mostly clear skies and diminishing winds will set the stage for a cool night as lows fall into the 30s to around 40 degrees, some of the typical cold spots might slip into the 20s.  Areas of frost are possible Overnight and a hard freeze is even a possibility along and north of Highway 2 in Northeast Minnesota.  Winds Tonight will be out of north or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

**The National Weather Service has issued a Frost Advisory from 2am Tonight to 8am Wednesday for Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...Southern St. Louis...Southern Lake...and Southern Cook Counties in Minnesota.  And for Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price Counties in Wisconsin.

**The National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Warning from 2am Tonight to 8am Wednesday for Koochiching...Itasca...Central-Northern St. Louis...Northern Lake...and Northern Cook Counties in Minnesota.

-Tonight's low temperature forecast

-Wednesday's high temperature forecast

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (May 16th)

High pressure will move off to our east during this period with low pressure and a warm front lifting northeast   into the Northern Plains.  Partly cloudy to sunny skies are expected Tomorrow with highs mainly in the 60s to lower 70s.  Winds will become south or west at 10 to 15 mph.  For Wednesday Night, partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 40s and 50s with south or east winds at 10 to 15 mph.  A few showers might develop late Wednesday Night, mainly around the Brainerd Lakes, Pine City areas in Minnesota.

-SPC has parts of Western, Central, Eastern and Southern Minnesota in a General Thunderstorm risk for Wednesday Night.  Severe weather is not expected at this time.

Extended Forecast, Thursday-Saturday (May 17th-19th)

Low pressure will be located to our west thru this period.  A warm front will lift toward the N/NE on Thursday and Friday, this front should lift north of our area by Saturday.  Very warm temperatures aloft (cap) will spread NE out of the Central/Northern Plains which could limit the coverage of showers and thunderstorms.  Moisture will advect into our area with dewpoints climbing into the 50s to around 60 degrees with PWS of around 1.00".  Instability will also increase with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -2 to -5C...The higher amounts of instability look to arrive on Friday and Saturday.  Not much shear to speak of, however, so the chances for severe weather aren't that great, but an isolated severe thunderstorm potential is certainly possible.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms does exist in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  Any activity Thursday and Friday would develop near the warm frontal boundary, and also on the edge of the thermal ridge/cap.  On Saturday, any convection that forms would likely be near the cold front which approaches from the west.

High temperatures on Thursday will range from the 50s near Lake Superior with 60s and 70s elsewhere.  Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Highs on Saturday will also be in the 70s and 80s, the warm air might even reach the Lake Superior shoreline on Saturday as winds turn to the S/SW.  Low temperatures Thursday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Lows Friday Night will mainly be in the 50s.

-Forecast surface map for 7pm Thursday, May 17th, 2012.  Could see some showers and thunderstorms erupt near and N/NE of that warm front in Southwest Minnesota.  (HPC)

-Forecast map for Saturday, May 19th, 2012 per HPC.  All of the Northland is in the warm sector on Saturday.  Gusty southerly winds and very warm temperatures.

Long Range Forecast (May 20th-26th)

A chance for showers or thunderstorms will linger on Sunday as a cold front and area of low pressure continue to pass thru the region.  It should dry out early next week (May 21-22) The next system could affect the area sometime during the Wednesday-Friday time frame (May 23-25) Showers or thunderstorms will be possible during the middle/end of next week.  Temperatures should be around seasonal averages during this period.


*Frost Advisory* 2am Tonight until 8am Wednesday

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 65 to 70.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph with winds becoming variable closer to Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly sunny.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Variable cloudiness.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  62
Low:  41

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:32 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:39 PM CDT

Wednesday's Pollen Forecast:  9.4/Medium-High
Wednesday's UV Index:  7.0/Medium