Friday, March 9, 2012

Mild and dry thru Sunday. Rain Sunday Night-Monday! Possible severe weather outbreak for the Plains during St. Patrick's Day weekend?

Issued at 8:46 PM CST, Friday, March 9th, 2012

  • Dry weather thru Sunday
  • A nice warm up over the weekend
  • Rain chances increase Sunday Evening into Monday
  • Mild temperatures expected for next week

Low temperature report for Friday, March 9th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  -14 degrees
Orr, MN:  -6 degrees
Cook, MN:  -6 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -7 degrees
Floodwood, MN:  -2 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  -10 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  -9 degrees

Snow depth report as of Friday Morning, March 9th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Northeast Minnesota:

Duluth:  12"
International Falls:  13"
7 miles northwest of Brainerd:  8"
Bruno:  15"
12 miles north of Isle:  5"
Dixon Lake:  16"
12 miles north of Grand Rapids:  11"
Embarrass:  9"
Grand Portage:  8"
4 miles east of Island Lake:  20"
Kabetogama:  21"
3 miles east of Orr:  11"
Finland:  23"

Northwest Wisconsin:

Park Falls:  15"
Saxon:  21"
9 miles north of Bayfield:  13"
4 miles west of Clam Lake:  16"
Gordon:  12"
Sarona:  6"

Snow depth map as of March 9th, 2012:  Note:  This might be the final weekend of the winter that has a deep snow pack in the Northland.

Weather History:

On this date in 1999:  12.0" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1035mb has moved into Eastern Wisconsin This Evening with a southerly flow now occurring in our area.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies occurred Today with highs mainly in the mid 20s to low 30s.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low continues to churn over the Southwest U.S. while a W/NW upper level flow covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  The big story around here was the strong warm air advection which was moving in from the Northern Plains.  850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranged from +16C in Northwest South Dakota to +6C in Western Minnesota to -6 to -10C in Northeast Minnesota to -18 to -22C in Eastern Ontario and Central-Northern Quebec Province Canada.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Rest of Tonight (March 9th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with near steady temperatures ranging from the upper teens to the 20s.  Southerly winds will perist at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Saturday and Saturday Night (March 10th)

A cold front will be moving SE through our area on Saturday, this front will then lift back north as a warm front Saturday Night.  850mb temperatures warming to +6 to +12C on Saturday combined with partly cloudy to sunny skies and a west to southwest wind will allow high temperatures to reach the 30s and 40s throughout the Northland with a few locales down South possibly climbing into the low 50s.  Low temperatures Saturday Night under a partly to mostly cloudy sky will be in the 20s and 30s.

Extended Forecast, Sunday-Tuesday (March 11th-13th)

Dry weather should continue on Sunday with highs in the 40s and 50s, clouds will be on the increase which will give way to some rain from Sunday Evening into Monday as the upper level low currently in the Southwest U.S. heads N/NE through the Central Plains and into the Upper Midwest early next week.  Rain should end sometime Monday Evening with mainly dry conditions expected Monday Night into Tuesday.  High temperatures on Monday will be in the 30s and 40s with highs on Tuesday in the 40s and 50s.  Lows will mainly be in the 30s for Sunday Night and Monday Night.

Precipitation forecast for 7pm Sunday-7pm Monday per HPC:  Most of our area is forecast to receive a quarter to half inch of much needed moisture (rain)

HPC's 5 day precipitation forecast, valid thru Wednesday, March 14th, 2012:  0.25-0.75" of rain is expected to fall in the Northland, the bulk of it coming between Sunday Night-Monday.

Long Range Forecast (March 14th-20th)

A cold front will be moving through the area during the middle of next week, little if any precipitation is expected to occur as this boundary moves through.  500mb flow is still forecast to become southwesterly from late next week through next weekend and possibly even into early the following week, or from March 16th-20th.  Moisture will surge north on southerly winds and as low pressure approaches from the Rockies, expect occasional rain showers and possibly even some thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest.  Timing of when the best rain chances will occur is uncertain at this point, but anytime between Friday-Tuesday, March 16th-20th could turn wet at times.

12z EUROPEAN model forecast for next Sunday, March 18th, 2012.  A very deep trough digging into the Southern Rockies, plenty of warmth and moisture spreading north through the Plains.

12z EUROPEAN model forecast for Monday, March 19th, 2012.  Potent system moving into the Plains...Could result in a severe weather outbreak for parts of the Central Plains.  Stay tuned!


.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 22 to 26.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mild.  Mostly sunny.  High 45 to 50.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Increasing cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.

.Sunday Night...  Light rain developing.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 38.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Monday...  Occasional light rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 38 to 41.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  32
Low:  15

Sunrise Saturday:  6:30 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   6:08 PM CST