Thursday, July 7, 2011

7/7/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:44 PM CDT, Thursday, July 7th, 2011

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

*Today marks the 5th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees.  Last time this occurred was on August 27th-31st, 2010.
*July 23rd-August 1st, 2007:  The last time we had more than 5 days in a row with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Spotty showers/thunderstorms This Evening
-Dry weather Overnight into Friday Night
-Near to above average temperatures thru the weekend
-Shower/thunderstorm chances return Saturday and Sunday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A batch of showers passed through Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin early This Morning with rainfall amounts generally under 0.10".  Note:  The Duluth Airport picked up 0.05" of rain early Today.  This Afternoon featured partly to mostly sunny skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms affecting extreme Northern Minnesota and Arrowhead.  Heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes have been occurring with this activity Today, but marginal moisture, limited shear and weak instability has kept these storms below severe levels.  High temperatures Today were in the upper 70s to middle 80s with dewpoints generally in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Winds Today were out of the west or southwest at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery continues to reveal a W-NW 500mb flow across the Upper Midwest with the stronger jet stream winds covering Canada, this plus a rather strong disturbance passing through Ontario Province has been generating some severe weather This Afternoon northwest of Lake Superior in Southern Ontario Province.  500mb ridge covered the Southern Rockies and Southern U.S. Today while a potent upper level trough with 60-120 meter 12 hour H5 height falls tracks through the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight:

A weak surface boundary will drop south into the area, this front combined with a disturbance well to our north will continue to produce a few showers and thunderstorms before Midnight...The majority of the activity should remain in Northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead but a rogue shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out farther south in Eastcentral Minnesota or Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Tonight will be in the 50s to lower 60s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be out of the north, west or southwest under 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

A weak front will turn stationary to our west and south as high pressure builds into Lake Superior.  Partly cloudy to sunny skies are forecasted on Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s but it may turn cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night under partly cloudy skies will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with some 40s possible in the Arrowhead.  Variable winds are expected during this period under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will pass by to our west-north this weekend.  A cold front attached to this low will move east through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Saturday and Sunday.  A moist and unstable airmass will develop out ahead of this boundary with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s with PWS from 1.00-1.50".  CAPE on Saturday is forecasted to be in the 1000-2000 j/kg range, especially in Northern-Western parts of our area...Then, on Sunday the axis of higher CAPE which is forecasted to range from 1500-3000 j/kg will be in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in our area for Saturday and Sunday, although the best chance for precipitation may focus more in Southern parts of our area by Sunday depending on the timing of the cold front.  Mid and upper level winds along with wind shear will become more favorable for some severe weather in portions of our area this weekend.  High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s for Saturday and Sunday, may even see a couple 90 degree temperatures in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota on Sunday.  Low temperatures Saturday Night will be in the 60s with some 50s possible near Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Dry, cooler and less humid weather returns for the early to mid part of next week as high pressure builds into Lake Superior.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Isolated showers or thunderstorms This Evening.  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph, becoming north.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday...  Mostly sunny.  High 75 to 80 but turning cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 51 to 56.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Variable cloudiness.  High 70 to 75.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Sunday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly sunny.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Monday...  Mostly sunny.  High 72 to 77.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  76 degrees
Low:  54 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  High
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:23 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:04 PM CDT

Tim