Wednesday, July 6, 2011

7/6/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:11 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 6th, 2011

Local Storm Report for Tuesday, July 5th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*5:16 PM CDT 7/5/11:  0.25" HAIL.  5 miles east-northeast of Little Round Lake, WI (Sawyer County)  5 minutes of lightning and heavy rain.

*5:22 PM CDT 7/5/11:  1.25" HAIL.  12 miles east-southeast of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)

*5:56 PM CDT 7/5/11:  0.50" HAIL.  1 mile south-southeast of Winter, WI (Sawyer County)

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

-Today marks the 4th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees
-July 2010 (2nd-6th) also had a similar opening with 5 straight days of high temperatures of at least 80 degrees

***Possible tornado in the Twin Cities, Minnesota on Tuesday, July 5th, 2011***
Source:  Storm Prediction Center

Time:  5:56 PM CDT 7/5/11
Location:  3 miles south-southeast of East Bethel, Minnesota (Anoka County)
Brief tornado touch down with damage to a boat on Coon Lake

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-A few showers possible late Tonight/Thursday Morning in Northcentral Minnesota
-Risk for showers/thunderstorms area-wide Thursday Afternoon/Evening
-Dry for Friday and Friday Night
-Weekend thunderstorm risk
-Temperatures at or above average into early next week
-Lake wind returns Friday-Saturday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota

Today's Weather:

Another very nice summer day with high pressure in control across the Upper Midwest.  Highs Today were in the 70s and 80s with variable winds under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W-NW 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  Upper level troughs covered Northeast Canada and Western Canada/Northeast Pacific.  A couple of upper level disturbances are dropping east-southeast through Central Canada and the Northern Plains, or on the N-NE side of an upper level ridge which covered the Rockies and Southern U.S.

Tonight:

A few showers are possible in Northern-Western areas Tonight, but most of us should remain dry Tonight with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s with variable winds under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Low pressure and disturbance will pass by to our north during this period with a weak cold front/trough trailing down into the Upper Midwest.  Some moisture and instability will develop in our area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening with CAPE approaching 1000 j/kg and Lifted Indices around -2 degrees C.  Dewpoints are forecasted to rise into the 55-63 degree range with PWS of 1.00-1.25".  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop especially Tomorrow Afternoon and Evening in Northern-Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Severe threat is fairly low with weak shear, a weak low level jet, and just marginal support in the mid/upper level levels.  The main risks from any thunderstorm would be from lightning and heavy downpours, but isolated strong storms could develop with a risk of small hail and gusty winds to 35 mph.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or west at 10-20 mph Tomorrow.  Winds will be out of the north or west under 20 mph Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather should return to the area Friday and Friday Night as high pressure builds back in.  Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s, but a lake breeze will keep it cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Low pressure passes by to our west-north this weekend with a warm front and cold front pushing through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  This next system will probably bring a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms to our area with the best chances occurring Saturday into early Sunday based on latest model data.  Might be some severe weather especially Saturday Afternoon/Night in some parts of our area, but this will depend on the timing of the system, and where the best instability, shear and moisture will be.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s, cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Thursday...  Variable cloudiness.  Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 78 to 83.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible early.  Variable cloudiness.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly sunny.  High 78 to 83.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  76 degrees
Low:  54 degrees

Thursday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  High
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:22 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:05 PM CDT

Tim