Sunday, July 3, 2011

7/3/11: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 6:49 PM CDT, Sunday, July 3rd, 2011

EF-2 TORNADO near Solon Springs, Wisconsin on July 1st, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has confirmed that an EF-2 tornado touched down near Solon Springs, Wisconsin (Douglas County) on Friday Evening, July 1st, 2011.

Location:  3.6 miles southwest of Solon Springs, WI to 1.3 miles west of Solon Springs, WI.
Time:  7:51 PM-7:54 PM CDT on July 1st.
Path Length:  2.9 miles.
Max Width:  300 yards.
Rating:  EF-2 with wind speeds of 120-130 mph.
Injuries:  Some injuries have been reported but the number is unknown at this time.  There were no fatalities.

Note:  The last tornado reported in Douglas County Wisconsin was on August 23rd, 1998 when an F0 tornado occurred just north of Maple, WI.

Note:  The last strong tornado to hit Douglas County Wisconsin (EF-2 or greater) occurred in the Northern part of the County on September 3rd, 1980.

EF-0 TORNADO near St. Cloud, Minnesota (Stearns County) on Friday, July 1st, 2011.  Source:  NWS Chanhassen, MN.

Location:  Just northeast of the Intersection of I-94 and Highway 23.
Path Length:  2.3 miles.
Maximum wind speeds:  About 65 mph.
Maximum width:  Approximately 30 yards.
Timing:  6:23 PM-6:26 PM CDT on Friday, July 1st, 2011.

Weather Tidbits:

*6,000 people still without power in Burnett County Wisconsin in wake of Friday's severe weather.
*Over 40 severe weather reports in the Duluth NWS forecast area on July 1st, 2011.
*1 tornado on July 1st.  An EF-2 southwest of Solon Springs, WI.
*18 severe thunderstorm warnings, 1 tornado warning, 2 flash flood warnings, and 5 special marine warnings were issued by the NWS Duluth, MN on July 1st, 2011.

Weather History:

On this date in 1990:  A record high temperature of 93 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-A couple showers/thunderstorms may affect Northern Minnesota Tonight and Monday
-Cold front triggers more shower/thunderstorm chances Monday Night/Tuesday
-Mild temperatures into Tuesday
-More humid for Monday
-Isolated severe threat, mainly for Northern Minnesota Monday/Monday Night

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure ridge of 1014-1017mb extended from Western Wisconsin to Eastern Iowa early This Evening.  This high brought with it another very pleasant early summer day around our area with partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the 70s and 80s.  Dewpoints have come up just a bit compared to 24 hours ago with values of 50 to 60 degrees late Today with PWS ranging from 0.60" in Northeast Minnesota to 1.20" in the Brainerd Lakes area.  Winds Today were out of the south, north or west under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W-NW 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  An upper level trough covered the Pacific Northwest with an upper level ridge extending from the Central-Southern Rockies, through the Plains and Southeast U.S.

Tonight:

High pressure will be centered just to our south/east.  Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found in our area with a risk for a couple showers or thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota, generally north and west of a Cass Lake to Virginia, Minnesota line.  Any storm Tonight should stay below severe levels with just marginal amounts of instability, moisture and weak shear in place.  Lows Tonight will be mainly in the 50s and 60s, but a few 40s are possible in the Northwoods of Wisconsin.  South or west winds under 15 mph are expected.

Monday and Monday Night:

A cold front will move into Northern-Western Minnesota by Monday Night.  Dewpoints along and ahead of this boundary will be in the 50s and 60s with PWS ranging from 1.00-1.50" and 850mb td's of +8 to +13 degrees C.  A moderately unstable airmass will develop with CAPE of 1000-2500 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -2 to -5 degrees C by Monday Afternoon and Monday Night.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop at times, especially by Monday Night in Northern-Western portions of our area.  Right now it appears that the greatest chance for some storms will be north and west of a line from Backus to Silver Bay with a lesser chance for the Twin Ports, Eastern Minnesota, and Northwest Wisconsin area.  Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop Monday Afternoon and Evening, mainly in Koochiching, Itasca and Cass Counties Minnesota with damaging wind and large hail as the primary hazards along with heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes from any thunderstorm.  The overall severe set-up is not the best for this period with plenty of warm air in place, but marginal moisture, instability and shear.  A front will provide the lift necessary for convective development and a jet streak of around 60-80 knots should help this process as well as it moves east out of the Northern Plains Monday Night.  Bottom line is that there will likely be some thunderstorms, but the vast majority of them should remain below severe levels the way it looks now.

High temperatures on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Lows Monday Night with similar sky conditions will be mainly in the 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or west at 10-20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Cold front settles south-east through our area on Tuesday with a lingering threat for showers or thunderstorms, mainly from the Brainerd Lakes, Eastcentral Minnesota area into Northwest Wisconsin.  Severe weather is not expected at this time, but heavy downpours and dangerous lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm on Tuesday.  Dry weather with lowering humidity returns Tuesday Night through Thursday with high pressure moving across the Upper Midwest.

Temperature forecast for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:  70s and 80s for daytime highs Tuesday and Wednesday.  Lows mainly in the 50s for Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.4th of July...  Warm.  Breezy.  A tad humid.  Partly cloudy.  High 83 to 88.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Monday Night...  Mild and humid.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible after Midnight.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Variable cloudiness.  High 77 to 82.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night...  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 52 to 57.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  75 degrees
Low:  53 degrees

Monday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:20 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:05 PM CDT

Tim