Thursday, July 14, 2011

7/14/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:29 PM CDT, Thursday, July 14th, 2011

Rainfall report from Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning, ending around 7 AM CDT Today.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Brainerd, MN:  0.47"
7 miles northwest of Brainerd, MN:  0.65"
Pine River Dam, MN:  0.31"
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  0.32"
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN:  0.23"

Weather Tidbits
Source:  Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times.

*500 daily high temperature records were set in the U.S. on Tuesday, July 12th, 2011.  2 towns in Oklahoma had their hottest readings on record.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Risk for showers and thunderstorms through next week
-No all day rains expected, but thunderstorms if they occur could be strong to severe
-Heat wave builds in this weekend with extremely high dewpoints
-Excessive heat advisories/warnings may be needed for portions of the Northland starting on Saturday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A warm front was centered over the Southwest half of Minnesota late Today.  One round of rain moved east across Central-Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Morning, most of this rain fell south of U.S. Highway 2.  Scattered showers continued This Afternoon in portions of Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, otherwise skies were mostly cloudy except north of the Iron Range where partly to mostly sunny skies occurred Today.  High temperatures were in the low to mid 70s in far Northern Minnesota with upper 50s and 60s elsewhere.  Winds were out of the east or southeast under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough covered the Northwest U.S./Western Canada with a southwest flow in place over the Northern Rockies and Western U.S.  Upper level ridge covered the Central-Southern U.S. with an upper level trough over Eastern Canada.  A westerly H5 flow was occurring across the Upper Midwest Today, north of the 500mb ridge to our south and behind the H5 trough in Eastern Canada.

Tonight:

A warm front will remain over Western and Southern Minnesota.  A few showers or some patchy drizzle/fog will be found north of that boundary This Evening, then late Tonight as elevated instability increases, look for scattered showers and thunderstorms around our area.  Locally heavy downpours and dangerous lightning will be the main threats from any thunderstorm Tonight.  Any severe weather should remain west of our area in the zone of stronger instability.  Lows Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with east or southeast winds under 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Warm front will move into Central Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin during this period.  Instability will continue to rise on Friday with CAPE of 1000-2500 j/kg and Lifted Indices from -2 to -6 degrees C.  Dewpoints will rise into the 60s and lower 70s with PWS of 1.25-1.75"!  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Friday with partly to mostly cloudy skies Friday Night.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout this period.  Heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning will accompany these storms and there is also a threat for some severe weather Friday Afternoon/Evening with large hail and damaging wind being the main hazards.  0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR are forecasted to be in the 30-40 knot range with 1KM HELICITY around 150 m2/s2 which will support the risk for severe weather.  Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with 50s and 60s near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with 50s near Lake Superior.  South or east winds are expected during this period under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

The threat for showers and thunderstorms should lessen this weekend due to a strong cap which will head east from the Northern Plains.  700mb temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday are forecasted to be in the +12 to +17 degree C range.  However, if thunderstorms can somehow develop, they could be quite potent due to extreme amounts of instability and moisture.  CAPE >3000 j/kg and dewpoints of 65-75+ degrees are expected this weekend with plenty of shear in place along with potent mid/upper level winds to our west-north.  The greatest chance for possible weekend storms would be in Northern Minnesota and or the Arrowhead...Those areas will be on the northern edge of the strong cap the way it looks now.  The main story for the weekend will be the intense heat and humidity.  High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be in the 90s for most of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with an outside chance of a 100 degree temperature on Sunday, especially around the Brainerd Lakes area.  Low temperatures Saturday Night and Sunday Night will generally be in the 70s (which is what our average HIGH is for mid-July) it's not out of the question that a few locations won't drop below 80 degrees both Saturday Night and Sunday Night.  Heat index values of 95-105 degrees are expected this weekend and heat advisories/warnings will likely be needed for portions, if not all of the Northland.  More very warm temperatures and humid conditions are expected for next week with a threat for some showers and thunderstorms and possible heavy rain/severe weather at times.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy drizzle or showers This Evening along with areas of fog.  Showers and thunderstorms possible Overnight with areas of drizzle and fog.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday...  Humid.  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 50%.

.Friday Night...  Humid.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday...  Warm and humid.  Partly sunny.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 85 to 90.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night...  Warm and humid.  Partly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Low 70 to 75.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday...  Warm and humid.  Partly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 87 to 93.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night...  Warm and humid.  Partly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Low 70 to 75.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday...  Warm and humid.  Partly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 85 to 90.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  76 degrees
Low:  55 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:29 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:59 PM CDT

Tim