Wednesday, July 13, 2011

7/13/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:37 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 13th, 2011

Low temperature report for Wednesday, July 13th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Hibbing, MN:  37 degrees
Orr, MN:  39 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  39 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  37 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  38 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 1990:  A record low temperature of 39 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Dry weather This Evening
-Some rain late Tonight and Thursday Morning for parts of the area
-Threat for showers and thunderstorms Thursday Night and Friday
-Additional storm chances this weekend and next week
-Heat and humidity surge north by Friday, lingers this weekend, possibly into next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

1022mb high was centered over Western Lake Superior late Today.  Plenty of dry air covered our area Today with Afternoon dewpoints in the 40s and 50s with PWS around 1/2".  Highs Today were in the middle 60s to lower 70s which is around 5-10 degrees below average for mid-July.  Winds Today were out of the east at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Deep 500mb troughs covered the Pacific Northwest and Eastern Canada/Northeast U.S. with an upper level ridge over the Central-Southern U.S.

Tonight:

High pressure will be centered to our east while a warm front remains in Nebraska and Kansas.  Some rain will spread into Western-Southern parts of our area late Tonight while Northern Minnesota and most of Northwest Wisconsin stays dry.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with easterly winds up to 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Low level moisture will start to increase during this period with dewpoints in the 50s to around 60 degrees with PWS climbing to between 1.00-1.50".  Southerly low level jet of around 30 knots will be found N-NE of a warm front which will head toward Southwestern Minnesota.  Areas of rain will occur on Thursday along with mostly cloudy skies.  Elevated CAPE comes up Thursday Night with values approaching 1000 j/kg during the night, this plus the low level jet in place should help to produce some showers and thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Thursday Night.  High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tomorrow Night holding nearly steady from the day's highs.  Winds during this period will be out of the south or east up to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A frontal boundary will drape itself across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend.  Strong jet stream winds around 100 knots will be centered to our west-north while intense heat and humidity expands north from the Southern-Central U.S.  This type of set-up often triggers thunderstorm clusters as they ride up and over the ridge, these storms are usually high wind producers and tend to occur at night and during the Morning hours.  We may see some storm clusters affect our area from Friday into next week as the overall weather pattern remains the same.  Deep moisture in place with dewpoints from 65 to 75+ degrees combined with PWS averaging 1.50" could lead to very heavy downpours when thunderstorms occur.  Instability will be high and shear will also be present, thus there will be a risk for some severe weather episodes starting on Friday and possibly lasting into next week at times.  High temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Highs for Saturday will reach the 80s and 90s.  Low temperatures Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees, although it may be cooler near Lake Superior, especially Friday Night.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Occasional showers.  Mostly cloudy.  High 57 to 62.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday...  Turning humid.  Showers or thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday Night...  Humid.  Showers or thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday...  Warm and humid.  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms.  High 81 to 86.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night...  Humid.  Partly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms.  Low 65 to 70.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday...  Warm and humid.  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms.  High 83 to 88.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  76 degrees
Low:  55 degrees

Thursday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:28 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:00 PM CDT

Tim