Monday, July 11, 2011

7/11/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:01 PM CDT, Monday, July 11th, 2011

Local Storm Report from Sunday, July 10th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*9:00 PM CDT 7/10/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Aitkin, MN (Aitkin County)  Estimated wind speed of 70 mph.  One foot diameter trees down.

Note:  Active severe weather day in portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on July 10th, 2011.  315 reports of severe weather per SPC with 275 of those reports in the form of wind damage.  There were 12 tornadoes as well on Sunday including 2 in Minnesota.

*8:48 PM CDT 7/10/11:  TORNADO.  Grove City, MN (Meeker County)
*8:48 PM CDT 7/10/11:  TORNADO.  6 miles northwest of Grove City, MN (Kandiyohi County)

Rainfall report for Sunday, July 10th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Brainerd, MN:  0.88"
Ashland, WI:  1.11"
Bruno, MN:  0.44"
3 miles west-southwest of Hinckley, MN:  0.42"
3 miles south of Ashland, WI:  1.02"
Sarona, WI:  0.88"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.88"
Webster, WI:  0.52"

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

*Today marks the 7th day so far this month with a maximum temperature of at least 80 degrees
*July 2010 produced 13 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees with zero 90 degree days.  July 2011 thus far has had 1 day in the 90s
*6/10 days this month has had at least a trace of rain

Massive heat wave in the Central Plains.  High temperatures from Sunday, July 10th, 2011.
Source:  Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times.

*Wichita, Kansas:  111 degrees.  Record high for the 10th of July.  Also was the warmest temperature since 1980.

*Joplin, Missouri:  106 degrees.  Warmest temperature in 25 years.

*Oklahoma City, Oklahoma:  105 degrees.  12th day in a row with 100+ degree temperatures.  22 days so far this year with 100 degree temperatures.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Pleasant weather into Wednesday
-Lake breeze returns, but not until Wednesday
-Heat wave possible this weekend, maybe into next week?
-Late week rain/thunder risk

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Cold front which spawned the showers and thunderstorms in parts of our area Sunday Evening has moved well to our south/east This Afternoon.  Northwest winds at 10-25 mph, falling dewpoints into the 50s and lower 60s with high temperatures in the low 70s in extreme Northern Minnesota with mid 70s and low 80s farther south were common Today with partly to mostly sunny skies.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough was in place across the Northeast Pacific/Western Canada and Pacific Northwest per water vapor satellite imagery with an upper level high covering the Central-Southern U.S. while a fast west-east flow prevailed across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, north to Canada.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

High pressure will build into the Upper Midwest during this period.  Clear-partly cloudy skies are on tap for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows Tonight in the 50s with some 40s possible in Northern Minnesota.  Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the northwest or north through Tuesday Night under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather should carry over into Wednesday as high pressure passes north/east of the area.  High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior as easterly winds develop.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  A warm front will move slowly northeast into the Upper Midwest beginning on Thursday.  Moisture will increase ahead of this front on Thursday with PWS climbing to between 1.00-1.50".  A cluster or two of rain and scattered thunderstorms are forecasted to develop Thursday and Thursday Night as the warm and moist advection pattern becomes established.  Should be a cool day on Thursday due to the clouds and possible rain, highs will be in the 50s and 60s, but lows Thursday Night should hold nearly steady from the day's highs.  Warm front should remain to our west and south on Friday, a risk for showers or thunderstorms will continue near this front and also to the N-NE of the hot/capped airmass which will be located farther to our south.  High temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. 

There are indications that a big upper level high will park just south of the area this weekend, perhaps lingering into next week.  A strong cap and temps surging into the 80s and 90s with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s with southerly winds would develop in our area if this high builds far enough north...There may also be some clusters of thunderstorms that erupt on the northwest-north side of this 500mb high and north of the cap, it's a set-up for thunderstorms producing wind damage, but where these occur are uncertain at this time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 72 to 77.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  76 degrees
Low:  54 degrees

Tuesday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  High
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:26 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:02 PM CDT

Tim