Sunday, July 10, 2011

7/10/11: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 6:10 PM CDT, Sunday, July 10th, 2011

Rainfall report from Friday Night/Saturday Morning, July 8th-9th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:  0.39"
International Falls, MN:  0.68"
Bruno, MN:  0.40"
Littlefork, MN:  1.09"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.63"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  0.40"

Rainfall report from Saturday, July 9th, 2011.  Note:  Totals after 7 AM Saturday.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  0.46"
Hibbing, MN:  0.20"
Cook, MN:  0.29"
Embarrass, MN:  0.26"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.83"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  0.45"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.59
Finland, MN:  0.22"


-Risk for some rain/thunderstorms Tonight
-Greatest risk of severe weather and heavy rain should remain to our south Tonight
-Warm temperatures into Monday
-Much cooler weather Tuesday through most of the rest of the week
-Lake wind returns by Tuesday and lingers for several days
-Storm chances could return late next week or next weekend?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Remnants of Saturday's cold front has pretty much washed out Today but what is left of it stretches from Northwest Wisconsin back to Eastcentral Minnesota late This Afternoon.  CU field has formed near this boundary This Afternoon with a few showers trying to erupt in a moist and unstable environment in Northwest Wisconsin, so far these showers have not had much success in organizing into much due to weak forcing.  High temperatures were in the 80s to lower 90s Today with a wide range in dewpoints from the drier 40s and 50s in Northern-Northeast Minnesota to the muggy 60s and 70s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.  Winds Today were out of the south, north or east under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest 500mb flow was in place over the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis with a strong surface and upper level low located to our northwest in Manitoba Province.  Potent mid/upper level winds of 60-90 knots covered portions of North Dakota, Northern Minnesota and Southern Canada early This Evening on the S-SE side of this weather system.


Cold front developing in the Dakotas This Afternoon will move east-southeast across Northern-Eastern Minnesota late Tonight and should reach Northwestern Wisconsin toward dawn.  The axis of greatest instability and moisture will remain to our south in Central and Southern Minnesota Tonight where a couple rounds of intense thunderstorms and possible heavy rain will take place.  In our area, instability will be less with CAPE of 500-1500 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -2 to -5 degrees C.  Dewpoints will generally be in the 50s and 60s with PWS increasing to 1.00-1.50".  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the entire area for Tonight with an isolated severe weather risk, mainly for Southern Cass, Crow Wing, Southern Aitkin and Pine Counties in Minnesota and for most of Northwest Wisconsin.  The main threats will be from damaging wind and large hail with heavy rain and dangerous lightning also possible.  Lows Tonight will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with a few 50s in Northern areas.  Winds will be out of the south, east or west under 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

Drier air returns as a cold front exits to our south/east.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected on Monday with highs in the 70s and 80s.  Lows Monday Night under mostly clear skies will be mainly in the 50s.  Winds during this period will be out of the west or northwest at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure keeps it dry in our area for Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly even into Thursday.  Expect a lake breeze to kick in by Wednesday, maybe as early as Tuesday.  High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday, but lakeside communities could hold in the 50s depending on the strength of the lake wind by mid-week.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s for Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night.  Southwest flow becomes established by late next week and next weekend with an upper level ridge of hot/capped air spreading north out of the Central U.S.  A frontal boundary will develop across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest near the jet stream and on the edge of the capped airmass, should become quite unstable near this boundary and some clusters of showers and thunderstorms could develop on occasion across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from Thursday through next weekend, July 14th-17th.


.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers and a possible thunderstorm mainly late.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 51 to 56.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75 but turning cooler near Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night...  Fair.  Low 50 to 55.

.Wednesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 62 to 67 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  76 degrees
Low:  54 degrees

Monday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  High
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:26 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:02 PM CDT