Thursday, June 9, 2011

6/9/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:42 PM CDT, Thursday, June 9th, 2011

*FROST ADVISORY*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Frost Advisory is in effect from 12 AM CDT Tonight until 7 AM CDT Friday for the following counties.  Central and Northern St. Louis MN...Lake MN...and Cook MN.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Crane Lake MN...Ely MN...Orr MN...Hibbing MN...Cotton MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Isabella MN...Finland MN...Lutsen MN...and Grand Marais MN.

Impacts:  Low temperatures in the lower to middle 30s with areas of frost late Tonight and early Friday Morning.  Sensitive vegetation should be protected against frost and near freezing temperatures.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible.  Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Low temperature report for Thursday, June 9th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls, MN:  31 degrees
Orr, MN:  34 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  30 degrees
4 miles east of Island Lake, MN:  33 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  33 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  31 degrees
Finland, MN:  35 degrees

March-May, 2011 U.S. Spring weather statistics
Source:  National Climatic Data Center/Nesdis/NOAA

-Washington state and Oregon had their wettest Spring in 117 years of weather records
-Oregon and Montana and their 2nd wettest Spring on record
-Idaho and Utah had their 5th wettest Spring on record
-States from Kentucky up through Vermont also had their wettest Spring on record
-Texas had their driest Spring on record
-New Mexico and their 3rd driest Spring on record while Louisiana had their 6th driest Spring on record

Areas from Washington state, to California, through the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, to Minnesota and Wisconsin had below average temperatures from March-May, 2011.

8 states had below average precipitation from March-May, 2011:  Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Georgia and Florida.

Weather tidbits:

-La Nina is gone per latest report from NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center.  Neurtral conditions have developed and are expected to continue at least through Summer 2011.
-Per NOAA report:  8 separate billon-dollar weather disasters have occurred in the U.S. so far in 2011.  Just one shy of the all-time record of 9 which occurred in 2008.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Below average temperatures into Friday
*Scattered frost potential for Northeast Minnesota late Tonight
*Areas of drizzle and light rain for some parts of the area late Tonight into early Saturday
*Most of the weekend looks dry with Sunday being the warmer day of the two

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

An active frontal boundary stretches from the Central Plains to the Northeast U.S. with clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms occurring Today near this boundary.  The Upper Midwest was north of this front Today with a return to colder than average temperatures.  Highs Today ranged from the lower to middle 50s near Lake Superior with mid 50s to low 60s farther inland, these temperatures are a good 10-20 degrees below average for early June.  Partly cloudy to sunny skies were in place Today with easterly winds of 5-15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest 500mb flow remained in place over the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis.  A vigorous H5 low/trough was seen over the Northern Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery with movement slowly toward the east.

Tonight:

Partly cloudy skies are expected north of Highway 2 with lows in the 30s, areas of frost are possible late Tonight mainly away from Lake Superior in Northeastern Minnesota.  Skies will become mostly cloudy in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota during the night with the possibility for some light rain or drizzle arriving Overnight, especially from the Brainerd Lakes, Hinckley areas in Minnesota, east to the Hayward Lakes area of Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows for the remainder of our area should be in the 40s.  Winds Tonight will be out of the east under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

A cold day on tap considering the time of year with the coldest temperatures occurring near Lake Superior.  Upper level low/trough will move east from the Northern Plains to Upper Midwest during this period as low pressure tracks E-NE out of the Central Plains toward the Eastern Great Lakes.  Northeasterly flow and cold air advection will be occurring across our area as 850mb temperatures fall from around +6 degrees C late Today to zero to +4 degrees C on Friday.  Overcast skies with areas of drizzle and light rain are expected during this period with locations south of the Iron Range having the best chance at a bit of light rain, it appears that Tomorrow Morning, and then again Friday Night would be the slightly wetter periods, with Friday Afternoon perhaps being rain-free.  Highs on Friday will only be in the 40s and 50s with lows Friday Night in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the north or east under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Surface and upper level low along with an upper level trough will be exiting the area to the east on Saturday, it looks mainly dry this weekend for our area, although some lingering drizzle is possible Saturday Morning.  Highs will be in the 50s and 60s on Saturday with lows Saturday Night in the 30s and 40s.  Slightly milder temperatures can be expected for Sunday with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees with lows Sunday Night mainly in the 40s.

Not much model agreement for next week, although they do agree in keeping the real warm air well to our south.  It could be showery at times most of next week, but high pressure setting up to our north/east may keep alot of the rain west-southwest of our local area.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear through mid-Evening then becoming mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional light rain or drizzle.  High 47 to 52.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional light rain or drizzle.  Low 40 to 43.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Drizzle possible early.  Becoming partly sunny.  High 55 to 60.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 43 to 48.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 62 to 67.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  70 degrees
Low:  47 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    None
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:02 PM CDT

Tim