Sunday, June 5, 2011

6/5/11: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 6:57 PM CDT, Sunday, June 5th, 2011

High temperature report for Saturday, June 4th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Grand Marais, MN:  81 degrees
Ashland, WI:  82 degrees
Hayward, WI:  81 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  79 degrees
Superior, WI:  81 degrees
Siren, WI:  80 degrees
Phillips, WI:  82 degrees
Butternut, WI:  81 degrees
Madeline Island, WI:  81 degrees
Upson, WI:  81 degrees
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  85 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 2000:  A record low temperature of 32 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather tidbits:

*High temperature of 76 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota on June 4th was the warmest temperature of 2011 thus far.
*Zero 80 degree days at Duluth, Minnesota so far in 2011.  Last year, our first 80 degree temperature occurred on May 25th.


-Hot/muggy weather builds north into the Upper Midwest into Tuesday
-Lake wind will take the bite out of the heat and humidity in the Twin Ports on Tuesday
-Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible thru Wednesday
-Severe threat on Tuesday...If the cap can break

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A pleasant late Spring day with partly cloudy to sunny skies, light winds, near to slightly above average temperatures and tolerable amounts of humidity.  Highs Today were in the 60s and 70s with 50s in Downtown Duluth.  Winds Today were out of the south or east under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Large 500mb ridge covered areas from the Central to Southern U.S. with widespread 90 degree temperatures located just south of Minnesota Today along with 60-70 degree dewpoints.  A rather fast westerly flow was found across the Northern Rockies to Upper Midwest to the north of that ridge.  An unusually strong storm system remained nearly stationary just west of California Today per water vapor satellite imagery with an upper level trough in place west of the Rockies.


One warm front will head into Southern Minnesota while another warm front hugs the Ontario/Minnesota border area.  Southwest low level jet will increase to 30-40 knots Tonight which will advect higher amounts of moisture north into the Upper Midwest.  Elevated instability will also be on the increase Tonight with MU CAPE building to 500-1500 j/kg Overnight.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop especially Overnight in portions of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Severe weather is not expected at this time, but a few strong storms could develop with a risk for hail under one half inch in diameter, dangerous lightning, heavy downpours, and possible gusty winds to around 30-40 mph.  Lows Tonight will be in the 50s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east under 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

Very warm and humid air will spread north into the area with high temperatures on Monday reaching the 80s in many areas, the only way temperatures would not hit 80 degrees would be if skies are cloudier during the day with occasional storms, right now it looks like will have partly to mostly sunny skies with a few showers and thunderstorms occurring from time to time through Monday Evening as a weak cold front sags south across our area during this period.  Quite a bit of instability should build-up Monday Afternoon for areas south of the Iron Range with CAPE of 1000-2500 j/kg along with Lifted Indicies of -2 to -5 degrees C.  30-40 knots of shear is forecast with W-NW 500mb winds of around 40 knots.  Isolated severe thunderstorms could develop Monday Afternoon, especially in Northwest Wisconsin, back through Eastcentral Minnesota.  Large hail and damaging winds would be the main threats along with heavy downpours and dangerous lightning.  Note:  Dewpoints on Monday are expected to get into the 60s which will make it feel even a little bit warmer.  Low temperatures Monday Night will be in the 50s with mainly dry weather after Tomorrow Evening.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the west or southwest at 10-20 mph.  Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the north, west, or east under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Tuesday, June 7th:  Weak cold front which will push south through our area Tomorrow will intensify and lift back north as a warm front on Tuesday while a rather strong area of low pressure tracks east out of the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest by Tuesday Night.  Severe weather parameters in our area are quite high Tuesday Afternoon/Night with CAPE >1500 j/kg with Lifted Indicies decreasing to -3 to -8 degrees C.  Shear of 40-50 knots with a change of wind direction with height will also be occurring across our area as that warm front moves in.  The problem is the enormous cap or warm layer aloft which will advect E-NE out of the Western High Plains.  By Tuesday Afternoon/Evening, 850mb temperatures are expected to reach the +22 to +26 degree C range with 700mb temperatures around +12 degrees C!  Chances for this cap to break are low at this time and thus the threat for surface based thunderstorms including the risk for supercells and isolated tornadoes is on the low side.  We could however see elevated thunderstorms at times with a risk for large hail for Tuesday and Tuesday Night.  High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 70s and 80s with 50s near Lake Superior.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Wednesday, June 8th:  Low pressure will exit to our north/east with a cold front pushing south/east through our area on Wednesday.  A few showers or thunderstorms could develop as that cold front moves through, otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s.


.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few late night showers possible.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Humid.  Variable cloudiness.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 79 to 84 but it may be cooler closer to Lake Superior especially into early Afternoon.  Wind southeast, becoming southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night...  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind west, becoming northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 50 to 55.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 76 to 81.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  Cooler.  High 57 to 62.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  69 degrees
Low:  46 degrees

Monday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    None
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:59 PM CDT