Saturday, June 4, 2011

6/4/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:11 PM CDT, Saturday, June 4th, 2011

Local storm report from Friday, June 3rd, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*10:05 PM CDT 6/3/11:  0.75" HAIL (dime size) Winter, WI (Sawyer county)
*8:50 PM CDT 6/3/11:  1.00" HAIL.  Red Cliff, WI (Bayfield county)
*8:25 PM CDT 6/3/11:  0.88" HAIL.  Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield county)
*6:28 PM CDT 6/3/11:  0.75" HAIL (dime size) Hibbing, MN (St. Louis county)

High temperature report for Friday, June 3rd, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Brainerd, MN:  81 degrees
Ashland, WI:  86 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  81 degrees
Pine River, MN:  81 degrees
Moose Lake, MN:  81 degrees
Hinckley, MN:  84 degrees
McGregor, MN:  81 degrees
Siren, WI:  83 degrees
Phillips, WI:  88 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  80 degrees
Upson, WI:  83 degrees
Butternut, WI:  84 degrees
Solon Springs, WI:  84 degrees
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  82 degrees

Weather tidbits:
Source:  Paul Douglas, St. Cloud Times

*515 tornado deaths in the USA so far in 2011
*2008, the last strong La Nina year produced 1,692 tornadoes in the U.S.
*U.S. tornado reports so far in 2011 per SPC:  1,429

May 2011 rainfall totals around Minnesota.
Source:  Paul Douglas, St. Cloud Times

Andover:  8.64" (most in the state)
Buffalo:  7.97" (wettest May since records began their in 1940)
Milaca:  7.51" (3rd wettest May since records began their in 1897)
Mora:  7.21" (4th wettest May since records began their in 1904)
Minneapolis:  4.04"
St. Cloud:  5.51"
International Falls:  1.84"
Duluth:  2.27"

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Dry with near average temperatures thru Sunday
-Shower/thunderstorm chance returns Sunday Night thru the middle of next week
-Lake wind develops Sunday, and again Tuesday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Friday Night's cold front has pushed well to the south-east of the area Today but a secondary cold front was dropping south through Northern Minnesota.  Chillier temperatures were found behind this second front with temperatures in portions of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario Provinces only in the 40s and 50s Today while pleasant 70s and a few 80s covered Northwest Wisconsin, Eastcentral and Northeast Minnesota with 60s in Northern Minnesota.  Dewpoints which were in the 60s on Friday have fallen into the 40s Today with PWS under 1.00" compared to the 1.50" values we had 24 hours ago.  Winds Today were out of the west or northwest at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Large 500mb ridge covered the Central and Southern U.S. through the Southern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Eastern U.S. Today while a rather fast westerly H5 flow prevailed north of this ridge across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  An unusually strong late Spring storm was located just west of California per water vapor satellite imagery This Afternoon with widespread rain affecting that area.  A very strong baroclinic zone (temperature gradient) has developed Today per RUC model analysis with 850mb temperatures ranging from zero to -4 degrees C in Central Canada to +10 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +20 degrees C in Southern Nebraska to +32 degrees C in parts of New Mexico.

Tonight:

High pressure will move into the Upper Midwest behind a cold front which will settle just to our south during the night.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows in the 40s and lower 50s with some 30s possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds Tonight will be out of the north or west under 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

High pressure will move off to our east while Tonight's cold front stalls and heads back north as a warm front during this period.  Southerly flow will develop on the backside of the exiting high and this will start to draw a more moist airmass north into our area with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s while PWS by Sunday Night climb to between 1.00-1.25".  Looks dry Tomorrow, but by Sunday Evening/Overnight scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop as elevated instability pushes back into the region.  Severe threat looks low at this point with locally heavy downpours and dangerous lightning being the main hazard.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  South or southeast winds are expected during this period at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Model agreement is fairly poor for Monday and Tuesday with the NAM being the odd model out when compared to the other computer models Today.

Monday, June 6th:  A weakening cold front will sag south across our area.  A rather moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place near this front with dewpoints up around 60, PWS >1.00" with CAPE at or above 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indicies around -2 to -4 degrees C.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Monday and Monday Evening and with rather strong winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere the potential for some gusty winds and possibly a bit of hail could occur in the stronger storms, although the overall severe threat looks pretty limited at this time.  High temperatures for Monday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Monday Night in the 50s.

Tuesday, June 7th:  Low pressure is forecast to push east across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest with a rather potent warm front lifting N-NE out of Western-Southern Minnesota.  The potential for some severe weather seems higher on Tuesday compared to Monday, but a stronger cap (or warm layer aloft) looks to push in for Tuesday with 700mb temperatures nearing +12 degrees C while 850mb temperatures soar to around +20 degrees C per all but the NAM forecast.  A risk for showers and thunderstorms does exist for Tuesday and Tuesday Night with at least an isolated severe weather potential.  Highs for Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible late.  Low 47 to 52.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Humid.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms.  High 70 to 75.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 50 to 55.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  69
Low:  46

Sunday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    Low
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:59 PM CDT

Tim