Tuesday, June 28, 2011

6/28/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:38 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 28th, 2011

Local storm report for Monday Evening, June 27th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*8:05 PM CDT 6/27/11:  HEAVY RAIN.  Little Marais, MN (Lake county)  0.80" of rain fell in just 15 minutes.

*8:30 PM CDT 6/27/11:  HEAVY RAIN.  Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)  0.70" of rain

*9:09 PM CDT 6/27/11:  HEAVY RAIN.  Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  0.97" of rain fell in less than 4 minutes.

*9:15 PM CDT 6/27/11:  FLASH FLOOD.  7 miles northeast of Little Marais, MN (Cook county)  Water over state Highway 61 between county road 6 and the Manitou River.

Rainfall report for Monday, June 27th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Note:  Heaviest totals are in bold.

Duluth, MN:  0.26"
International Falls, MN:  0.76"
Hibbing, MN:  1.24"
8 miles south of Bigfork, MN:  1.25"
Littlefork, MN:  0.75"
Pokegema Dam, MN:  1.65"
Babbitt, MN:  2.31"
Cook, MN:  3.34"
Embarrass, MN:  1.40"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.92"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  1.88"
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  1.40"
Finland, MN:  0.93"
Butternut, WI:  0.37"
Park Falls, WI:  0.37"
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.56"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.60"

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

*Today marks the 11th day this month with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees
*June, 2010 had 10 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees, but had 3 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees compared to just one day so far this June.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Tranquil summer weather into Wednesday
-Steamy dewpoints arrive on Thursday
-Big time cap, but still a risk for isolated convection Wednesday Night into Friday
-Extreme instability for Thursday could mean a severe risk should storms develop

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A near perfect early summer day with some Morning clouds giving way to increasing amounts of sunshine during the Afternoon for most of the us.  Highs Today were in the 70s with some 60s in the Arrowhead.  Winds were out of the north, west or southwest under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Potent 500mb low/trough was moving into Eastern Canada with a W-NW H5 flow covering the Upper Midwest behind this system while an upper level ridge continued to dominate the Central and Southern U.S. per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

Mostly clear skies are on tap with patchy late night fog.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with south or west winds under 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

High pressure will be centered to our east during this period while an upper level trough covers the Western U.S.  Southerly flow will begin to draw some moisture north into our area with dewpoints reaching the 50s and 60s while PWS increasing to around an inch.  Elevated instability will also push E-NE into the area with CAPE of around 1000 j/kg expected by Wednesday Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected during this period with a few showers or thunderstorms possible by Wednesday Night as instability increases in a warm advection regime.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with 50s and 60s near Lake Superior.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Deep low pressure will pass well to our northwest for Thursday and Friday.  A cold front will head east out of the Northern Plains, crossing the Upper Midwest sometime Thursday Night or Friday.  Southerly winds ahead of this boundary will pump tropical moisture into our area with dewpoints on Thursday getting into the 65-75 degree range while PWS range from 1.25-1.75".  Extreme amounts of instability are also being forecasted for Thursday by the models Today with CAPE on the order of 4000-6000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -5 to -9 degrees C.  Mid and upper level winds look favorable for storm organization as does the low level jet...1KM Helicity is forecast to be around 150 m2/s2 Thursday Evening with 0-6KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear averaging 30-40 knots.  Those parameters are all favorable for severe thunderstorm development as the cold front moves in especially Thursday Evening/Overnight, the issue with getting thunderstorms to develop will be a tremendous cap consisting of 700mb temperatures of +14 to +16 degrees C! It's uncertain whether or not any thunderstorms will develop in our area Thursday into early Friday, but if they do they certainly could become severe with the ingredients that will be in place.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 80s and 90s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 60s and 70s with 50s near Lake Superior.  Looks mainly dry for Friday and Saturday with westerly winds and drier air moving in behind the cold front.  It will still be plenty warm, however, with widespread 80s expected in our area on Friday.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible late.  Low 55 to 60, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday...  Humid.  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night...  Humid.  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65, cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 81 to 86.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 57 to 62.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  74 degrees
Low:  52 degrees

Wednesday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:06 PM CDT

Note:  Duluth/Superior Harbor water temperature as of June 28th:  48.8 degrees

Tim