Monday, June 27, 2011

6/27/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:36 PM CDT, Monday, June 27th, 2011

Rainfall report for Sunday thru Monday Morning, June 26th-27th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Note:  Highest totals are in bold.

International Falls, MN:  0.58"
Hibbing, MN:  0.23"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.96"
Littlefork, MN:  0.33"
Northome, MN:  1.19"
Cook, MN:  2.10"
Embarrass, MN:  0.38"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  1.06"
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.50"
2 miles south of Cohasset, MN:  2.30"
3 miles southeast of Cohasset, MN:  3.00"
16 miles north of Deer River, MN:  3.00"
1 mile southwest of Round Lake, MN:  2.84"
11 miles north of Marcell, MN:  5.25"
8 miles northeast of Cook, MN:  5.40"
Wirt, MN:  3.10"
15 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN:  3.15"

Local storm report for Monday, June 27th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*8:35 AM CDT 6/27/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  37 mph.  Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca county)

*8:40 AM CDT 6/27/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca county)  Trees down in the Grand Rapids area.

*8:45 AM CDT 6/27/11:  FLASH FLOOD.  1 mile east of Bear Lake, MN (Itasca county)  Roads beginning to wash out.  Water over multiple roads and highways in the Bear Lake area.

*8:58 AM CDT 6/27/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Nashwauk, MN (Itasca county)  Trees blown down on county roads 8 and 56 near Nashwauk.  A few trees on power lines and power outages reported in the Grand Rapids and to the east near Nashwauk...Pengilly...and Warba.

*9:15 AM CDT 6/27/11:  FLASH FLOOD.  2 miles east of Marcell, MN (Itasca county)  Report of a partial washout on Highway 45 between county road 7 and state highway 38.

*9:20 AM CDT 6/27/11:  FLASH FLOOD.  6 miles south-southeast of Meadow Brook, MN (St. Louis county)  Water running over county highway 22, 1.5 miles west of Highway 73.

Weather Tidbits:

*508 severe weather reports, 375 of which were damaging wind reports per SPC on Sunday, June 26th, 2011.  The bulk of the severe weather was in the Northcentral U.S. down into the Southeast U.S.
*Wake low caused the pressure to drop 7mb in 50 minutes at Sioux Falls, SD Sunday Evening.  Wake lows form on the backside of thunderstorm complexes and can sometimes produce damaging wind gusts.

Extreme heat in the Southern Plains on Sunday, June 26th, 2011.
Source:  TWC.

Gage, OK:  113 degrees
Dodge City, KS:  110 degrees
Borger, TX:  113 degrees
Dalhart, TX:  110 degrees
Childress, TX:  117 degrees
Amarillo, TX:  111 degrees

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Rain in Northern-Northeast Minnesota tapers off late Tonight
-Dry and pleasant weather for Tuesday and Wednesday
-Warm wave and humid weather mid to late week
-Cooling lake breezes Wednesday-Thursday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1004mb has moved into Central Lake Superior early This Evening with high pressure of 1018mb centered in Western South Dakota.  An area of heavy rain and thunderstorms developed early This Morning and lingered into early This Afternoon in portions of Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota...Underneath this nearly stationary band of rain, there were reports of flooding and some excessive rain totals on the order of 2-5"! Isolated severe thunderstorms also developed This Morning from the Brainerd Lakes area, northeast to Grand Rapids and Westcentral portions of St. Louis county with some wind damage reported in those areas.  The rest of the area saw partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies Today with scattered showers, but a line of thunderstorms did develop This Afternoon affecting the Hayward Lakes area, east to Price county Wisconsin, those storms stayed below severe levels, but did drop some locally heavy rainfall.  As of early This Evening, areas of rain lingered in Northern-Northeast Minnesota underneath the upper level low/trough with a few thunderstorms in the Arrowhead.  High temperatures Today were in the 50s and 60s with a few 70s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the southwest or northwest at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Potent H5 trough/low with it's 60 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls was moving east through the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  500mb ridge and W-NW upper level flow was found behind this system over the Northern Plains.

Tonight:

Occasional rain will persist through Midnight north of a Grand Rapids to Two Harbors, Minnesota.  A few thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning will also continue This Evening in the Arrowhead of Minnesota with some possible flooding.  By late Tonight, expect partly-mostly cloudy skies in our area with a threat for some showers mainly in the Arrowhead.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Dry weather during this period as Today's system exits to our east while high pressure heads into the Upper Midwest.  Highs on Tuesday will be mainly in the 70s with lows Tuesday Night in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the northwest or west under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Pleasant weather for Wednesday with highs in the 70s and 80s with slightly more humidity moving in by mid-week compared to Tuesday.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Thursday looks down right warm and muggy as high temperatures reach the 80s in most areas with a few locales possibly nudging close to 90 degrees! Dewpoints will also be on the rise with widespread 60s and 70s away from Lake Superior.  It does look like a lake breeze will develop Wednesday and Thursday which will result in much cooler temperatures near Lake Superior both those days.  A cold front looks to pass through the area sometime Thursday Evening or on Friday, the atmosphere ahead of this front will be extremely capped with 700mb temperatures forecasted to be around +16 degrees C! The computer models are showing a lot of instability and good wind shear developing ahead of this front across our area late this week, but the strong cap in place should keep the threat for thunderstorms and severe weather on the low side the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Variable cloudiness.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 72 to 77 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday...  Humid.  Partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Humid.  Low 60 to 65, cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 80 to 85.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  74 degrees
Low:  52 degrees

Tuesday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim