Saturday, June 25, 2011

6/25/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:30 PM CDT, Saturday, June 25th, 2011

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

*76 degree high temperature on June 24th...Warmest maximum temperature since June 6th when it was 83 degrees.
*June 24th was our 1st time above 70 degrees since June 17th.
*3.46" of rain so far this month which is 0.09" ABOVE AVERAGE.
*11.76" of precipitation since January 1st which is 0.29" BELOW AVERAGE.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Most areas stay dry Tonight
-Threat for showers/thunderstorms increase Sunday Afternoon into Monday
-Dry weather returns next Tuesday/Wednesday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1014mb has moved off to our east Today with southerly winds occurring across our area on the backside of this high.  An area of rain has been affecting portions of Southeast Minnesota and Southwest Wisconsin Today while scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are developing in Western North Dakota late This Afternoon.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with pleasant late June temperatures with highs topping out in the 70s with low dewpoints in the 40s and 50s with PWS of 0.70-1.00".  Winds Today were out of the south or southwest at 5-15 mph with a few higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis.  A disturbance was passing south of Northern Minnesota Today per water vapor satellite imagery while an upper level trough moves east-southeast out of Western Canda and the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with an outside chance of a shower or two, mainly in Western-Northern areas.  Lows Tonight will be mainly in the 50s with southerly winds under 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

A cold front will be tracking east through the Dakotas with southerly winds continuing ahead of this boundary.  Moisture will be on the increase during this period with dewpoints reaching the 55-65 degree range with PWS of 1.00-1.50" and 850mb td's of +8 to +12 degrees C.  Some instability will also develop Sunday Afternoon/Evening with CAPE of 500-1300 j/kg with Lifted Indices of zero to -3 degrees C.  Scattered showers are possible Sunday Morning into early Afternoon mainly in Northcentral Minnesota. 

Scattered showers or thunderstorms could then erupt Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Night in Northern-Eastern Minnesota, and mainly from Sunday Evening through the Overnight hours for Northwest Wisconsin. 

The potential for severe weather is relatively low for our area, but favorable shear will be in place with 6KM and Effective Bulk Shear values of around 30-40 knots combined with mid level winds around 30-40 knots, a low level jet increasing to 30-45 knots late Sunday Afternoon/Evening, and 1KM HELICITY around 150 m2/s2.  All this could lead to an isolated severe thunderstorm threat, especially around the Brainerd Lakes area late Sunday Afternoon or Sunday Evening with large hail and damaging wind being the primary hazards.

Locally heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes will also occur in any thunderstorm that develops Tomorrow or Tomorrow Night.

High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Sunday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Skies will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy Tomorrow and mostly cloudy Tomorrow Night.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph on Sunday and south, east or west under 20 mph Sunday Night.

Note:  Rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50" are possible in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday into Monday with localized higher amounts an excess of 1.00".

Extended Forecast:

Cold front will be moving through Northwest Wisconsin Monday Morning which will then be followed by an upper level trough which will move south/east across the Upper Midwest Monday Afternoon.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms could continue Monday Morning in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  A few showers or thunderstorms could redevelop Monday Afternoon into early Evening, mainly for the Northern half of Minnesota.  Highs on Monday will be in the 60s and 70s.  High pressure moves in Monday Night through Wednesday with dry weather.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with highs on Tuesday generally in the 70s.

A potent upper level trough will develop in the Western U.S. during the mid to late portion of next week with a southwest flow aloft developing for the Plains and Upper Midwest.  Still looks like a couple days of very warm temperatures for the area with Thursday and possibly Friday being the warmest days when widespread 80s and possibly some 90s will be found in our area...Temperatures could be cooler near Lake Superior the mid to late portion of next week, but that will depend on the wind direction which is still somewhat uncertain this far out in time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Monday...  Showers and isolated thunderstorms early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible late in the day.  High 70 to 75.  Chance of rain 60% early and 20% late in the day.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.

.Tuesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 48 to 53.

.Wednesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 72 to 77.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  73 degrees
Low:  51 degrees

Sunday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim