Thursday, June 23, 2011

6/23/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:46 PM CDT, Thursday, June 23rd, 2011

EF-0 TORNADO on Tuesday, June 21st, 2011 in Anoka county, Minnesota.
Source:  NWS Chanhassen, MN.

Location:  From near the intersection of U.S. Highway 10 and Central Ave. in Blaine...Northwest to about 1/2 mile northwest of the intersection of County Highway 14 and Hanson Boulevard in far Northern Coon Rapids.

Path Length:  Approximately 5 and one half miles.

Maximum wind speeds:  70-80 mph.

Time:  2 minutes either way of 3:12 PM CDT on June 21st, the tornado was on the ground until around 3:25 PM CDT per radar estimates.

Note:  Within the 7 county Twin Cities Metro area including Eastern Wright county, there have been 6 tornadoes thus far in 2011.  The remainder of the 52 counties in the NWS Twin Cities/Chanhassen county warning area have seen 5 thus far.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

*Average June temperature thru the 22nd:  56.8 degrees/2.2 degrees BELOW AVERAGE
*7 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees
*1 day so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees
*June 17th:  The last time the temperature reached 70 degrees
*9 consecutive days with at least a trace of rain.  (June 15th-23rd)
*June 1st-14th rainfall total:  0.14"
*June 15th-22nd rainfall total:  3.14"
*1.59" of rain on June 22nd.  April 30th was the last time we had at least 1.00" of precipitation (1.11")

Rainfall report for Wednesday through Thursday Morning, June 22nd-23rd, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  0.60"
International Falls, MN:  0.60"
Brainerd, MN:  0.36"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.68"
Hibbing, MN:  0.60"
Ashland, WI:  0.48"
Littlefork, MN:  0.60"
Northome, MN:  0.53"
Embarrass, MN:  0.62"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.69"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  0.79"
Silver Bay, MN:  1.12"
Finland, MN:  1.48"
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.76"
Sarona, WI:  0.37"

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Patchy drizzle/light rain for some areas Tonight
-Sunshine and warmer temperatures for Friday
-Near average temperatures this weekend into early next week
-Shower/thunderstorm chances Sunday-Monday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1000mb has moved into Northern LOWER Michigan early This Evening.  Clouds and patchy drizzle/light rain continued on the backside of this low across Northeast-Eastern Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin while a mix of clouds/sun were occurring farther west.  High temperatures Today were in the middle 60s to lower 70s from International Falls to the Brainerd Lakes area with 50s to lower 60s elsewhere.  Winds Today were out of the north or northeast under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low and trough covered the Great Lakes, Central and portions of Eastern Canada per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  Upper level ridge covered the Southwest U.S. with an upper level trough in place over the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight:

Low pressure will move into Eastern Ontario Province while high pressure moves east from the Northern Plains to Upper Midwest.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with patchy light rain and drizzle in Northwest Wisconsin and Arrowhead of Minnesota, this precipitation should end around Midnight.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with north or west winds under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Temperatures will warm up during this period as high pressure moves overhead.  Should see at least some sunshine on Friday with high temperatures reaching the 70s in most locales which is about normal for late June.  Clear-partly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow Night with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds during this period will be variable or west-southwest in direction under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather should carry over into Saturday with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with lows mainly in the 50s.  A cold front moves east out of the Northern Plains Sunday and Monday with increasing moisture and instability moving into the Upper Midwest out ahead of that boundary.  Showers or thunderstorms are possible in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin late this weekend into early next week.  Too early to tell if any severe weather will occur with this front, low level jet looks very weak, but winds in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere will be quite strong and the 6KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR are forecasted to be favorable for storm development Sunday Afternoon/Night per latest SREF model run (15z).  High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Sunday Night mainly in the 50s.

Dry weather returns for next Tuesday and Wednesday, June 28th-29th.  Then, a vigorous storm looks to pass well to our northwest by late next week with gusty southerly winds and an area of very warm temperatures pushing N-NE into the area sometime between Wednesday-Friday, June 29th-July 1st.  High temperatures could soar well into the 80s, perhaps even some 90s especially for next Thursday and Friday.  Not sure yet if this warm air will make it to the lakeshore, that will depend on the wind direction, and that's still uncertain this far out in time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Patchy light drizzle before Midnight.  Low 46 to 51.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Warmest day since June 17th.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75.  Wind northwest to west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind south to southwest around 12 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 52 to 57.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 68 to 73.  Chance of rain 30%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  73 degrees
Low:  51 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim